{ "ticker": { "symbol": "SIXF", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY 6 MONTH BUFFER10 FEB/AUG ETF", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 35.0748, "latest_open": 34.6518, "latest_high": 35.32, "latest_low": 34.6518, "bar_count": 132, "analysis_bar_count": 132, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 60, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 27.81, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.21, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.7533261416756485, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true 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may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.21; Wave B 30.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.13; C length 4.14.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.67\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.21, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.7533261416756485, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 32.345, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.40709652804272, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 30.936, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.3561601484000585, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.0748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.378588052754084, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.0748, "confirmation": 30.936, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 58 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.21; Wave 2 30.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.34; Wave 3 35.07.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 23% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.67\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.21, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.7533261416756485, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 32.345, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.40709652804272, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 30.936, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.3561601484000585, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.0748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.378588052754084, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 30.936, "confirmation": 35.0748, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 42 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.21; Wave B 30.94.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.13; C length 4.14.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.67\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.21, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.7533261416756485, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 32.345, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.40709652804272, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 30.936, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.3561601484000585, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.0748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.378588052754084, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 35.0748, "confirmation": 30.936, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 58 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 57, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.21, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.7533261416756485, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-02-20", "price": 32.345, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.40709652804272, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 30.936, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.3561601484000585, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.0748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.378588052754084, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 6.174984637459181, "fair_value_gap": 19.281393775070715, "market_activity": 72.018928, "market_dynamics": 0.807735, "relative_strength": -3.094728, "roc30": 9.063432835820919, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 6.2% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.1695310224293767 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 4.544858420268275 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 8.494310009372496 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 15.641247976472693 } ], "range": { "high_52": 35.32, "low_52": 30.2201, "position_52": 95.19206258946261, "drawdown": -0.6942242355605803 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 7.140319760428684, "average_weekly_range": 0.9484895710693593, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.21, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.7533261416756485, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 33.0349, "fair_value": 29.405089, "trend_gap": 6.174984637459181, "fair_value_gap": 19.281393775070715 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 26.21, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.7533261416756485, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 35.0748, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 33.82220526516598, "weeks": 70, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 33.82220526516598, "weeks": 70, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+72.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 69, "history_score": 51, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 33, "weekly_observations": 132, "confirmed_pivots": 2 }, "volume_ratio": 271.7269173267465, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 56, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 55, "positive_rate": 81.8, "median_return": 1.14, "bar_width": 5.699999999999999, "average_return": 0.87, "best_return": 3.45, "worst_return": -4.07 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 46, "positive_rate": 91.3, "median_return": 3.31, "bar_width": 16.55, "average_return": 3.27, "best_return": 6.99, "worst_return": -3.29 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 97.3, "median_return": 6.63, "bar_width": 33.15, "average_return": 6.34, "best_return": 9.66, "worst_return": -0.27 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 30.94, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 35.07; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 36, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 1, "explanation": "Price is 6.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 12, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 81, "explanation": "Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", 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