{ "ticker": { "symbol": "XCID", "name": "PT Ciptadana Asset Management - DIRE Properti Ritel Fund", "exchange": "JKT" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 52.0, "latest_open": 51.886509, "latest_high": 68.0, "latest_low": 50.0, "bar_count": 113, "analysis_bar_count": 113, "reversal_percent": 6.274511468454099, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 47, "date": "2025-05-09", "price": 56.036041, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.540622714578147, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 50, "date": "2025-05-30", "price": 64.883835, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 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"bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 55.00; Wave 2 52.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 25% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 55.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.8431372549019605, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 51.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2727272727272725, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.9607843137254901, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 55.0, "confirmation": 51.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 58.39; Wave 2 52.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 58.393452, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.99999826213395, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 52.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.948919409662581, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 58.393452, "confirmation": 52.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 55.00; Wave 2 52.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 25% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 55.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.8431372549019605, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 51.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2727272727272725, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.9607843137254901, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 55.0, "confirmation": 51.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.039218349526559, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 58.39; Wave 2 52.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 0% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 72, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 58.393452, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.99999826213395, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 52.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.948919409662581, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.0, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 58.393452, "confirmation": 52.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.274511468454099, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 55.00; Wave 2 52.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 25% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 55.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.8431372549019605, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 51.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2727272727272725, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.9607843137254901, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 55.0, "confirmation": 51.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.392158027917869, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 55.00; Wave 2 52.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 25% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 55.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.8431372549019605, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 51.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2727272727272725, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.9607843137254901, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 55.0, "confirmation": 51.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 52, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 55.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.8431372549019605, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 51.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2727272727272725, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.9607843137254901, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -0.7940463607354779, "fair_value_gap": -8.087187433468163, "market_activity": -16.777748, "market_dynamics": 0.222049, "relative_strength": 8.655369, "roc30": -3.4623631871395775, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 0.8% below its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.1838034702051945 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.9607843137254901 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -3.4623631871395775 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -25.99980805488674 } ], "range": { "high_52": 97.982229, "low_52": 47.0, "position_52": 9.807338945498048, "drawdown": -46.92915181588695 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 25.511915280545317, "average_weekly_range": 6.048284299593738, "active_drawdown": -31.76605651305784 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 51.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2727272727272725, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 55.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.8431372549019605, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 55.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.8431372549019605, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 52.416209, "fair_value": 56.575355, "trend_gap": -0.7940463607354779, "fair_value_gap": -8.087187433468163 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 51.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2727272727272725, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 52.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.9607843137254901, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 1.9607843137254901, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "0.8% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+8.7", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-16.8", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 113, "confirmed_pivots": 20 }, "volume_ratio": 1493.1455298102253, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 17, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 12.5, "median_return": -1.75, "bar_width": 8.75, "average_return": -1.84, "best_return": 1.78, "worst_return": -7.27 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 7, "positive_rate": 14.3, "median_return": -5.12, "bar_width": 25.6, "average_return": -4.11, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -7.48 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -8.81, "bar_width": 44.050000000000004, "average_return": -8.81, "best_return": -7.11, "worst_return": -10.5 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 51.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 55.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 42, "rising_cycle_count": 19, "rising_cycle_percent": 79, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 99, "positive_rate": 76.8, "median_return": 2.25, "average_return": 2.48, "median_excess_return": 0.4, "excess_observations": 99, "p10": -1.45, "p90": 6.92 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 72, "positive_rate": 59.7, "median_return": 2.74, "average_return": 1.34, "median_excess_return": -1.93, "excess_observations": 72, "p10": -6.74, "p90": 7.75 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 64, "positive_rate": 48.4, "median_return": -0.43, "average_return": 0.95, "median_excess_return": -3.12, "excess_observations": 64, "p10": -9.17, "p90": 12.59 } ], "benchmark": "^JKSE", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 5.769230769230769, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 8, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 10% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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