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        "label": "10w",
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        "date": "2026-09-11",
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        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "value": 0.752126998219359
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        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "value": 0.6628282970730366
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        "date": "2026-10-02",
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        "date": "2026-10-09",
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "correction",
      "stage": "wave_c",
      "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 76,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 6.07; Wave B 6.43.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "A length 1.15; C length 1.18.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave C is 1.03\u00d7 Wave A.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 246,
          "date": "2026-03-20",
          "price": 6.07,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -18.32924508640079,
          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "5"
        },
        {
          "index": 250,
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "price": 7.22,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 18.945634266886316,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "A"
        },
        {
          "index": 254,
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "price": 6.434,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -10.886426592797779,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "B"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 7.616,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 18.371153248368035,
          "weeks": 21,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "C"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 7.616,
      "confirmation": 6.434,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
      "evidence_weight": 15
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 6.07; Wave 2 6.43.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 7.22; Wave 3 7.62.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.03\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 246,
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "price": 6.07,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -18.32924508640079,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 250,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 7.22,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 18.945634266886316,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 254,
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "price": 6.434,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -10.886426592797779,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 7.616,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 18.371153248368035,
            "weeks": 21,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 6.434,
        "confirmation": 7.616,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 13
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bullish-wave5",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave5",
        "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 95,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 1.85; Wave 2 4.65.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 5.41; Wave 3 7.43.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.41; Wave 4 6.07.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.56, 2.78, 1.55.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 7.43; Wave 5 7.62.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 21% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.78\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 122,
            "date": "2023-11-03",
            "price": 1.852365,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -16.804064120109103,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 191,
            "date": "2025-02-28",
            "price": 5.409427,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 192.02813700323642,
            "weeks": 69,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 196,
            "date": "2025-04-04",
            "price": 4.653082,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -13.981979976807148,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 239,
            "date": "2026-01-30",
            "price": 7.432281,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 59.728132880529486,
            "weeks": 43,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 246,
            "date": "2026-03-20",
            "price": 6.07,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -18.32924508640079,
            "weeks": 7,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "4"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 7.616,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 25.469522240527173,
            "weeks": 29,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "5"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 6.07,
        "confirmation": 7.616,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 73
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 13.623607415630122,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 1.85; Wave 2 4.65.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 5.41; Wave 3 7.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 5.41; Wave 4 6.07.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.56, 2.78, 1.55.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 7.43; Wave 5 7.62.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 21% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.78\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 122,
              "date": "2023-11-03",
              "price": 1.852365,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.804064120109103,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 191,
              "date": "2025-02-28",
              "price": 5.409427,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 192.02813700323642,
              "weeks": 69,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 196,
              "date": "2025-04-04",
              "price": 4.653082,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.981979976807148,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 239,
              "date": "2026-01-30",
              "price": 7.432281,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 59.728132880529486,
              "weeks": 43,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 246,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 6.07,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.32924508640079,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 7.616,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 25.469522240527173,
              "weeks": 29,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 6.07,
          "confirmation": 7.616,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 73
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 8.514754634768826,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "correction",
          "stage": "wave_c",
          "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 76,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 6.07; Wave B 6.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "A length 1.15; C length 1.18.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave C is 1.03\u00d7 Wave A.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 246,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 6.07,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.32924508640079,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "5"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 7.22,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 18.945634266886316,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "A"
            },
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 6.434,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.886426592797779,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "B"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 7.616,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 18.371153248368035,
              "weeks": 21,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "C"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 7.616,
          "confirmation": 6.434,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
          "evidence_weight": 15
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 5.960328244338178,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 6.07; Wave 2 6.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 7.22; Wave 3 8.28.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 7.22; Wave 4 7.62.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.60\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 246,
              "date": "2026-03-20",
              "price": 6.07,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.498437881817894,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 7.22,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 18.945634266886316,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 6.434,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.886426592797779,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 8.276,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 28.62915760024867,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 7.616,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.974867085548576,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 7.22,
          "confirmation": 8.276,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 68,
      "changes": 2,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_crest_risk",
    "title": "Hurst crest risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 89,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 246,
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "price": 6.07,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -18.32924508640079,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "5"
      },
      {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 7.22,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 18.945634266886316,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "A"
      },
      {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "price": 6.434,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.886426592797779,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "B"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 7.616,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 18.371153248368035,
        "weeks": 21,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "C"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 2.928766698219231,
      "fair_value_gap": 49.47571628033133,
      "market_activity": 16.526408,
      "market_dynamics": -0.162933,
      "relative_strength": 4.820025,
      "roc30": 19.88807088508124,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 2.9% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -6.4143524207422
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -0.7823033982321687
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 8.028368794326239
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 27.074407104286944
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 8.308822,
      "low_52": 5.858136,
      "position_52": 71.72946676971264,
      "drawdown": -8.338390207420494
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 22.0820570077339,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.7348111865195786,
      "active_drawdown": -7.974867085548576
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "price": 6.434,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.886426592797779,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": null,
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 7.399292,
      "fair_value": 5.095142,
      "trend_gap": 2.928766698219231,
      "fair_value_gap": 49.47571628033133
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "price": 6.434,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.886426592797779,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 7.616,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 18.371153248368035,
        "weeks": 21,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 18.371153248368035,
      "weeks": 21,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "2.9% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+4.8",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+16.5",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.2",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+19.9",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 22
    },
    "volume_ratio": 229.6294166177474,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 96,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 95,
          "positive_rate": 68.4,
          "median_return": 3.45,
          "bar_width": 17.25,
          "average_return": 3.03,
          "best_return": 19.32,
          "worst_return": -16.33
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 93,
          "positive_rate": 87.1,
          "median_return": 12.24,
          "bar_width": 61.2,
          "average_return": 11.34,
          "best_return": 28.63,
          "worst_return": -8.81
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 87,
          "positive_rate": 92.0,
          "median_return": 21.87,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": 19.83,
          "best_return": 41.99,
          "worst_return": -28.02
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "setup",
      "label": "Setup in timing window",
      "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 6.43, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 7.62; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 21,
      "constructive_percent": 88,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 8,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 215,
          "positive_rate": 63.3,
          "median_return": 1.82,
          "average_return": 1.32,
          "median_excess_return": 0.2,
          "excess_observations": 215,
          "p10": -7.35,
          "p90": 9.21
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 129,
          "positive_rate": 71.3,
          "median_return": 6.75,
          "average_return": 6.04,
          "median_excess_return": 2.45,
          "excess_observations": 129,
          "p10": -12.57,
          "p90": 21.79
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 105,
          "positive_rate": 76.2,
          "median_return": 12.22,
          "average_return": 13.34,
          "median_excess_return": 8.71,
          "excess_observations": 105,
          "p10": -9.22,
          "p90": 36.07
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 0.0,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 33,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 2.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 72% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 32,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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