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Wave 2 27.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.92; Wave 3 31.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 11, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.65, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.88005205148922, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 25, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 29.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.270168855534722, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 46, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 31.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.624036659699076, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 27.370001, "confirmation": 31.92, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.65; Wave B 27.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 3.27; C length 4.55.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.39\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 11, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.65, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.88005205148922, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 25, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 29.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.270168855534722, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 46, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 31.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.624036659699076, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.92, "confirmation": 27.370001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 26 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.65; Wave 2 27.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.92; Wave 3 31.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 11, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.65, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.88005205148922, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 25, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 29.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.270168855534722, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 46, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 31.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.624036659699076, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 27.370001, "confirmation": 31.92, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 37 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.65; Wave 2 27.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.92; Wave 3 31.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 11, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.65, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.88005205148922, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 25, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 29.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.270168855534722, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 46, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 31.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.624036659699076, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 27.370001, "confirmation": 31.92, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.65; Wave 2 27.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.92; Wave 3 31.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 11, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.65, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.88005205148922, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 25, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 29.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.270168855534722, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 46, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 31.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.624036659699076, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 27.370001, "confirmation": 31.92, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 37 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.65; Wave 2 27.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.92; Wave 3 31.92.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 11, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.65, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.88005205148922, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 25, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 29.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.270168855534722, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 46, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 31.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.624036659699076, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 27.370001, "confirmation": 31.92, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 6.6% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.6381322957198391 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.928990433508359 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 8.774922773042181 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.580002, "low_52": 26.174999, "position_52": 89.69552395213556, "drawdown": -2.025788703143722 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.159662229574954, "average_weekly_range": 1.7542346800025943, "active_drawdown": -1.4662756598240512 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 7, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 32.062099, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 29.946, "fair_value": 29.069513, "trend_gap": 6.591865357643759, "fair_value_gap": 9.805761107865829 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 28, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 27.370001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.522723930481293, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 46, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 31.92, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.624036659699076, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 16.624036659699076, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+72.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+13.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 6, "agreement": 83, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 39, "history_score": 18, "indicator_coverage": 43, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 47, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 115.50080475424042, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 31.92, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 27.37; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 14.254382832080209, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 33, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 1, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 5, "explanation": "Price is 6.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 9, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 59, "explanation": "Price is 90% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 88, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 88/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Hurst risk alignment is 88/100.", "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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