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"2026-02-13", "value": 0.36540210874646073 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.25189941111104075 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": -0.018062697660443217 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.43279208104461225 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.5559053803182965 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.754525433973738 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.9649305307931095 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.9551317941767756 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.8366897485583382 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.5403356654381483 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.3945106095802023 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.380164414007942 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.24231610187180752 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.24846761352289562 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.4725177394610861 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.558489883756022 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.5460029596672539 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.6205700736211269 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.7974126331726631 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.1432885160868116 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.2156250128824182 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.9408643258440811 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.7144168929278595 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.5499838034511545 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.17804228359942859 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.1117900244430226 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 28.71; Wave 2 28.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 28.715, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.052677025299076, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 24.434999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.905105345638164, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 28.084999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.937590134544301, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 28.715, "confirmation": 24.434999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 28.71; Wave 2 28.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 28.715, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.052677025299076, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 24.434999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.905105345638164, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 28.084999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.937590134544301, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 28.715, "confirmation": 24.434999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.284097830652383, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.427561144157739, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 28.71; Wave 2 28.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 28.715, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.052677025299076, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 24.434999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.905105345638164, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 28.084999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.937590134544301, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 28.715, "confirmation": 24.434999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.499292800910417, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 28.71; Wave 2 28.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 28.715, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.052677025299076, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 24.434999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.905105345638164, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 28.084999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.937590134544301, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 28.715, "confirmation": 24.434999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 28.715, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.052677025299076, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 24.434999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.905105345638164, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 160, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 28.084999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.937590134544301, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.1294596481919013, "fair_value_gap": 17.898133741951717, "market_activity": -11.277505, "market_dynamics": 0.208492, "relative_strength": -11.98843, "roc30": -7.66070006047345, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 1.1% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 5.622410680707032 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -1.4042548216866857 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -5.644213191473649 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 1.4874956090440572 } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.517181, "low_52": 24.434999, "position_52": 45.16107160170359, "drawdown": -13.630277483155753 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 22.089192092572176, "average_weekly_range": 1.7515274794204216, "active_drawdown": -13.630277483155753 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 24.434999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.905105345638164, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 28.715, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.052677025299076, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 28.715, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.052677025299076, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 27.771333, "fair_value": 23.821411, "trend_gap": 1.1294596481919013, "fair_value_gap": 17.898133741951717 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 24.434999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.905105345638164, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 160, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 28.084999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.937590134544301, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 14.937590134544301, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "1.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-12.0", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-11.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-7.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 87, "history_score": 62, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 161, "confirmed_pivots": 10 }, "volume_ratio": 14.753501740371963, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 24.43, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 28.71; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 57.1, "median_return": 0.25, "average_return": 2.31, "median_excess_return": 0.84, "excess_observations": 35, "p10": -9.92, "p90": 11.94 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 79.4, "median_return": 4.31, "average_return": 6.72, "median_excess_return": 3.62, "excess_observations": 34, "p10": -15.38, "p90": 29.07 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 24, "positive_rate": 79.2, "median_return": 5.66, "average_return": 8.44, "median_excess_return": 2.07, "excess_observations": 24, "p10": -23.83, "p90": 30.47 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 2.2431939556059803, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 12, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 45% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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