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"date": "2026-01-02", "value": 1.6786639918649704 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 2.1148829568285756 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 2.38823363951704 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 2.5697166597711996 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 2.6942574978739064 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 2.7813205864212875 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 2.8428467910439332 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 2.8389539255989664 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 2.5685523580404177 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 2.2438747444810634 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.9598002472482001 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.7191046243731618 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 1.5573505696784575 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 1.5863183341173395 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 1.7348725672558403 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 2.0365870760531495 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 2.1040715762953726 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.092595509182272 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 2.05894320010621 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 2.0280243634455477 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.99047721558714 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.9233074189356434 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.6659651462755711 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.4836003101973847 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.3728988281378862 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0815717430462213 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.0726438002003336 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.190992079509024 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.1036975455223397 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9545643663827998 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.935099512971523 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.1438395443825145 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.00; Wave 2 27.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.20; Wave 3 31.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 4% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.12\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 154, "date": "2023-02-10", "price": 1e-06, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.99833291656246, "weeks": 74, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 161, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 29.1993, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2919929900.0, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 168, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.9182, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.387433945334313, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 187, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.829623686340815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 27.9182, "confirmation": 31.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 62 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.00; Wave B 27.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 29.20; C length 3.58.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.12\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 154, "date": "2023-02-10", "price": 1e-06, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.99833291656246, "weeks": 74, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 161, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 29.1993, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2919929900.0, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 168, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.9182, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.387433945334313, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 187, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.829623686340815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.5, "confirmation": 27.9182, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 0.00; Wave 2 27.92.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 29.20; Wave 3 31.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 4% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.12\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 154, "date": "2023-02-10", "price": 1e-06, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.99833291656246, "weeks": 74, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 161, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 29.1993, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2919929900.0, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 168, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.9182, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.387433945334313, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 187, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.829623686340815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 27.9182, "confirmation": 31.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 62 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 76, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 154, "date": "2023-02-10", "price": 1e-06, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.99833291656246, "weeks": 74, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 161, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 29.1993, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2919929900.0, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 168, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.9182, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.387433945334313, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 187, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.829623686340815, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.53576992532088, "fair_value_gap": 397.89194132651687, "market_activity": 2.013006, "market_dynamics": -0.750504, "relative_strength": 52.424445, "roc30": 7.915517566248142, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 5.5% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.441107801304248 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 3.3295063145809434 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 7.879298476333333 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 3149999900.0 } ], "range": { "high_52": 31.525, "low_52": 1e-06, "position_52": 99.92069785632665, "drawdown": -0.07930214115780676 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 8.125848961502133, "average_weekly_range": 1.2901839027117599, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 154, "date": "2023-02-10", "price": 1e-06, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.99833291656246, "weeks": 74, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 154, "date": "2023-02-10", "price": 1e-06, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.99833291656246, "weeks": 74, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 29.8477, "fair_value": 6.326674, "trend_gap": 5.53576992532088, "fair_value_gap": 397.89194132651687 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 154, "date": "2023-02-10", "price": 1e-06, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.99833291656246, "weeks": 74, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 187, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3149999900.0, "weeks": 33, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 3149999900.0, "weeks": 33, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+52.4", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+7.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 90, "history_score": 72, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 188, "confirmed_pivots": 36 }, "volume_ratio": 23.449749693019744, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 51.4, "median_return": 0.1, "bar_width": 0.5, "average_return": -3.53, "best_return": 92.7, "worst_return": -79.51 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 53.6, "median_return": 2.65, "bar_width": 13.25, "average_return": -17.42, "best_return": 129.77, "worst_return": -99.93 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 6.7, "median_return": -99.92, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -92.84, "best_return": 6.09, "worst_return": -99.94 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 31.50, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 27.92; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 11.370793650793654, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 38, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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