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"2026-05-01", "value": 1.440616386749744 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.4213453906264948 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.3080811101422558 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.1638507552093125 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.9899532999151744 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.7439723133634175 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.5585940142364691 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.4478494940533044 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.19467025042171127 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.16373898620366653 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.004258274811453133 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.15572723350641293 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.21956244259220625 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1377.00; Wave 2 1200.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 1132.00; Wave 3 1105.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.801652892561984, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 1132.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.792302106027595, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1200.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.007067137809187, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1105.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.916666666666667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 1200.0, "confirmation": 1105.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 803.00; Wave 2 1105.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 92, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 803.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.0199203187251, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 71.48194271481943, "weeks": 54, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1105.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.753086419753085, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 803.0, "confirmation": 1377.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1377.00; Wave B 1200.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 245.00; C length 95.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.39\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.801652892561984, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 1132.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.792302106027595, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1200.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.007067137809187, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1105.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.916666666666667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 1105.0, "confirmation": 1200.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 24 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 12.535349553875372, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 803.00; Wave 2 1105.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 92, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 803.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.0199203187251, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 71.48194271481943, "weeks": 54, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1105.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.753086419753085, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 803.0, "confirmation": 1377.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 12.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.8345934711721075, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.484215429820475, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1377.00; Wave 2 1200.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 1132.00; Wave 3 1105.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.801652892561984, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 1132.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.792302106027595, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1200.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.007067137809187, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1105.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.916666666666667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 1200.0, "confirmation": 1105.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bearish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.801652892561984, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 1132.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.792302106027595, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 155, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 1200.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.007067137809187, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1105.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.916666666666667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -10.702260030359144, "fair_value_gap": 15.199550934844467, "market_activity": -21.849351, "market_dynamics": -1.019165, "relative_strength": -23.210795, "roc30": -8.298755186721992, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 10.7% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -2.385159010600707 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -18.75 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -12.162162162162161 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 16.807610993657505 } ], "range": { "high_52": 1594.0, "low_52": 891.0, "position_52": 30.440967283072546, "drawdown": -30.67754077791719 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 30.55157381926209, "average_weekly_range": 5.1896844722766735, "active_drawdown": -19.753086419753085 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 101, "date": "2025-06-20", "price": 858.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.939914163090129, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.635099913119028, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.635099913119028, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 1237.433333, "fair_value": 959.205128, "trend_gap": -10.702260030359144, "fair_value_gap": 15.199550934844467 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 146, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 1377.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.635099913119028, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 158, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1105.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -19.753086419753085, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -19.753086419753085, "weeks": 12, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "10.7% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-23.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-21.8", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 86, "history_score": 61, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 159, "confirmed_pivots": 19 }, "volume_ratio": 83.43382171911095, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 11, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 70.0, "median_return": 4.36, "bar_width": 21.8, "average_return": 11.55, "best_return": 51.51, "worst_return": -11.16 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 38.49, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 33.97, "best_return": 39.95, "worst_return": 4.71 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 40.23, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 41.04, "best_return": 52.39, "worst_return": 33.57 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 1105.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 1200.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 461, "positive_rate": 61.2, "median_return": 1.42, "average_return": 56.53, "median_excess_return": -0.06, "excess_observations": 461, "p10": -9.3, "p90": 8.11 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 180, "positive_rate": 58.9, "median_return": 2.57, "average_return": 152.1, "median_excess_return": 0.18, "excess_observations": 180, "p10": -18.21, "p90": 13.13 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 115, "positive_rate": 69.6, "median_return": 7.02, "average_return": 200.03, "median_excess_return": 0.89, "excess_observations": 115, "p10": -21.76, "p90": 26.39 } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 8.597285067873303, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 32, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 10.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 30% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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