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        "label": "10w",
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        "value": 1.2572226096060974
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 1.0240827059310864
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.7799729287242056
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.5833899716352995
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.4029368467820076
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.18923249222591088
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": -0.01757975301750392
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -0.17089296431638068
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -0.2588179159670635
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        "value": -0.44598675947847555
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        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "value": -0.4669457015718365
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "value": -0.5618237311646731
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "value": -0.6098084255983891
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-04",
        "value": -0.6898699423999596
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-11",
        "value": -0.7493044262746548
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "value": -0.8949865814140852
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "value": -1.0092798873501279
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      {
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "value": -1.142330008098529
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 16.417932393916015,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 16.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 10.261207746197508,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 10.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 7.182845422338255,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_crest_risk",
    "title": "Hurst crest risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 91,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": null,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -24.14236247456538,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.099425473701843,
      "market_activity": -34.873733,
      "market_dynamics": -1.589163,
      "relative_strength": -18.734731,
      "roc30": -27.142857142857135,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 24.1% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -10.526315789473676
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -22.72727272727273
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -21.51165474977607
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -19.047619047619047
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 0.477778,
      "low_52": 0.242,
      "position_52": 5.513661155833034,
      "drawdown": -46.62793180096195
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 42.851464974824836,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.8167882311291406,
      "active_drawdown": -76.7080745341615
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 207,
        "date": "2025-06-13",
        "price": 0.207,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -22.960404625353107,
        "weeks": 20,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 0.458667,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 43.333437499999995,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 0.458667,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 43.333437499999995,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 0.336156,
      "fair_value": 0.274487,
      "trend_gap": -24.14236247456538,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.099425473701843
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    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 252,
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "price": 0.458667,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 43.333437499999995,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
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      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 0.255,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -44.404110171431554,
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        "confirmed": false
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      "move_percent": -44.404110171431554,
      "weeks": 23,
      "status": "Forming"
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    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "24.1% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-18.7",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-34.9",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-1.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-27.1",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 7,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 35
    },
    "volume_ratio": 118.32145396112854,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 81,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 80,
          "positive_rate": 41.2,
          "median_return": -2.16,
          "bar_width": 10.8,
          "average_return": 2.8,
          "best_return": 73.16,
          "worst_return": -25.0
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 72,
          "positive_rate": 61.1,
          "median_return": 4.64,
          "bar_width": 23.2,
          "average_return": 15.98,
          "best_return": 78.98,
          "worst_return": -23.46
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 72,
          "positive_rate": 72.2,
          "median_return": 30.52,
          "bar_width": 100.0,
          "average_return": 32.42,
          "best_return": 140.63,
          "worst_return": -26.18
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      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 22,
      "constructive_count": 12,
      "constructive_percent": 55,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 5,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 606,
          "positive_rate": 48.2,
          "median_return": -0.33,
          "average_return": 1.09,
          "median_excess_return": -0.61,
          "excess_observations": 606,
          "p10": -14.36,
          "p90": 17.33
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 237,
          "positive_rate": 47.7,
          "median_return": -1.0,
          "average_return": 3.68,
          "median_excess_return": 0.06,
          "excess_observations": 237,
          "p10": -23.49,
          "p90": 33.95
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 135,
          "positive_rate": 50.4,
          "median_return": 0.08,
          "average_return": 5.94,
          "median_excess_return": -0.82,
          "excess_observations": 135,
          "p10": -26.11,
          "p90": 49.16
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^HSI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 28,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 24.1% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 6% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
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      "warnings": [
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      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
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