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"value": -1.9432845583580345 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -1.982549946105249 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -1.8720028123773649 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -1.5043150212364824 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -1.1253642418419125 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.8216322988143521 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.6119373618483785 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.4879193290137166 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.4261081333637476 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.27859351444005886 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.2563951199799537 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.2275599450292673 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.22940435254483482 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.38250401259518907 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.44026145069922246 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.4909452269259913 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.3666697248698513 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.82; Wave 2 28.29.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 31.29; Wave 3 33.24.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 31.29; Wave 4 31.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.48, 4.95, 1.72.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 33.24; Wave 5 33.20.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.11\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 68, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.815001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.44206784996624, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 80, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 31.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.688420037724413, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.285, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.603710143697342, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 33.235001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50044546579458, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 31.475, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.29562493468857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 33.195, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.464654487688638, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 31.475, "confirmation": 33.195, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 33.24; Wave 2 33.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 98% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 98, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 33.235001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50044546579458, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 31.475, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.29562493468857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 33.195, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.464654487688638, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 33.235001, "confirmation": 31.475, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 28.29; Wave B 31.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.95; C length 1.72.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.35\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.285, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.603710143697342, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 33.235001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50044546579458, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 31.475, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.29562493468857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 33.195, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.464654487688638, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 33.195, "confirmation": 31.475, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.82; Wave 2 28.29.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 31.29; Wave 3 33.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.10\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 68, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.815001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.44206784996624, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 80, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 31.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.688420037724413, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.285, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.603710143697342, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 33.195, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.359024217783276, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 28.285, "confirmation": 33.195, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.82; Wave 2 28.29.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 31.29; Wave 3 33.24.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 31.29; Wave 4 31.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.48, 4.95, 1.72.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 33.24; Wave 5 33.20.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.11\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 68, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.815001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.44206784996624, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 80, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 31.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.688420037724413, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.285, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.603710143697342, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 33.235001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50044546579458, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 31.475, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.29562493468857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 33.195, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.464654487688638, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 31.475, "confirmation": 33.195, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 26.82; Wave 2 28.29.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 31.29; Wave 3 33.24.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 31.29; Wave 4 31.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.48, 4.95, 1.72.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 33.24; Wave 5 33.20.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.11\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 6w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 68, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.815001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.44206784996624, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 80, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 31.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.688420037724413, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.285, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.603710143697342, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 33.235001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50044546579458, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 31.475, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.29562493468857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 33.195, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.464654487688638, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 31.475, "confirmation": 33.195, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 70, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 68, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 26.815001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.44206784996624, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 80, "date": "2026-02-13", "price": 31.290001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.688420037724413, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 28.285, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.603710143697342, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 33.235001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50044546579458, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 31.475, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.29562493468857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 33.195, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.464654487688638, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.7427416868173795, "fair_value_gap": -53.66699203292797, "market_activity": 2.770245, "market_dynamics": 1.086067, "relative_strength": -74.719532, "roc30": 15.160447002239481, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 7.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.7588404917286387 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 6.719176981192734 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 11.020066889632114 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 29.46568367650873 } ], "range": { "high_52": 4806.140137, "low_52": 25.65, "position_52": 0.15782900463706157, "drawdown": -99.30932101325035 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.659062547277276, "average_weekly_range": 2.652035552832033, "active_drawdown": -99.30932101325035 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 31.475, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.29562493468857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 33.235001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50044546579458, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 33.235001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.50044546579458, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 30.8095, "fair_value": 71.644388, "trend_gap": 7.7427416868173795, "fair_value_gap": -53.66699203292797 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 31.475, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.29562493468857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 33.195, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.464654487688638, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 5.464654487688638, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-74.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+15.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 41, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 106, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 108.86727049088674, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 12, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 11, "positive_rate": 72.7, "median_return": 3.16, "bar_width": 15.8, "average_return": 1647.58, "best_return": 18108.52, "worst_return": -5.3 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 3.81, "bar_width": 19.05, "average_return": 5.8, "best_return": 10.8, "worst_return": 2.79 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 3, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 10.05, "bar_width": 50.25, "average_return": 10.83, "best_return": 15.28, "worst_return": 7.16 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 31.48; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 5.181503238439521, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 56, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 3, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 14, "explanation": "Price is 7.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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