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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave5",
      "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 400.54; Wave 2 386.43.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 347.25; Wave 3 284.67.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 347.25; Wave 4 339.21.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 53.29, 101.75, 61.88.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 284.67; Wave 5 277.33.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.91\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 14w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 212,
          "date": "2025-07-25",
          "price": 400.536919,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 16.942386774985533,
          "weeks": 16,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 235,
          "date": "2026-01-02",
          "price": 347.250026,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -13.303865504592853,
          "weeks": 23,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 243,
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "price": 386.425111,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 11.281521113550623,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 253,
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "price": 284.674315,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -26.33131054467111,
          "weeks": 10,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 267,
          "date": "2026-08-14",
          "price": 339.21,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
          "weeks": 14,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 277.33,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 339.21,
      "confirmation": 277.33,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 75
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 77,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 386.43; Wave B 339.21.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 101.75; C length 61.88.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.61\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 243,
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "price": 386.425111,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 11.281521113550623,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 253,
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "price": 284.674315,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -26.33131054467111,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 267,
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "price": 339.21,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 277.33,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 277.33,
        "confirmation": 339.21,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 17
      },
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave3",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 69,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 386.43; Wave 2 339.21.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 284.67; Wave 3 277.33.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.61\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 243,
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "price": 386.425111,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 11.281521113550623,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 253,
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "price": 284.674315,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -26.33131054467111,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 267,
            "date": "2026-08-14",
            "price": 339.21,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 277.33,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 339.21,
        "confirmation": 277.33,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 9
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 9.510463058266522,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 400.54; Wave 2 386.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 347.25; Wave 3 284.67.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 347.25; Wave 4 339.21.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 53.29, 101.75, 61.88.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 284.67; Wave 5 277.33.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.91\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 14w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 212,
              "date": "2025-07-25",
              "price": 400.536919,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 16.942386774985533,
              "weeks": 16,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 235,
              "date": "2026-01-02",
              "price": 347.250026,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.303865504592853,
              "weeks": 23,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 243,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 386.425111,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.281521113550623,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 253,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 284.674315,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -26.33131054467111,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 339.21,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 277.33,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 339.21,
          "confirmation": 277.33,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.9440394114165755,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 400.54; Wave 2 386.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 347.25; Wave 3 284.67.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 347.25; Wave 4 339.21.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 53.29, 101.75, 61.88.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 284.67; Wave 5 277.33.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.91\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 14w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 212,
              "date": "2025-07-25",
              "price": 400.536919,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 16.942386774985533,
              "weeks": 16,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 235,
              "date": "2026-01-02",
              "price": 347.250026,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.303865504592853,
              "weeks": 23,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 243,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 386.425111,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.281521113550623,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 253,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 284.674315,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -26.33131054467111,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 339.21,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 277.33,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 339.21,
          "confirmation": 277.33,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 75
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.160827587991602,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-abc",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "correction",
          "stage": "wave_c",
          "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 75,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 343.32; Wave B 339.21.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "A length 58.65; C length 61.88.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave C is 1.06\u00d7 Wave A.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 343.32,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 5.130542571650461,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "5"
            },
            {
              "index": 253,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 284.674315,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -17.081930851683566,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "A"
            },
            {
              "index": 267,
              "date": "2026-08-14",
              "price": 339.21,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "B"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 277.33,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "C"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 277.33,
          "confirmation": 339.21,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave5_risk",
    "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 212,
        "date": "2025-07-25",
        "price": 400.536919,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 16.942386774985533,
        "weeks": 16,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 235,
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "price": 347.250026,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.303865504592853,
        "weeks": 23,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 243,
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "price": 386.425111,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 11.281521113550623,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 253,
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "price": 284.674315,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -26.33131054467111,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 339.21,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "4"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 277.33,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "5"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -11.554936044297277,
      "fair_value_gap": -19.362779345324753,
      "market_activity": -32.767598,
      "market_dynamics": -0.894327,
      "relative_strength": -24.719417,
      "roc30": -17.429485963015594,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave decline mature. Price is 11.6% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 0.9639275505893439
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -15.904542422220873
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -18.227922748046584
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -23.541154657921357
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 390.523735,
      "low_52": 266.149528,
      "position_52": 8.989381536318064,
      "drawdown": -28.985110213595597
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 31.06185342759913,
      "average_weekly_range": 6.608147705475941,
      "active_drawdown": -30.760440088170757
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": null,
      "resistance": {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 339.21,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 339.21,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 313.561874,
      "fair_value": 343.923064,
      "trend_gap": -11.554936044297277,
      "fair_value_gap": -19.362779345324753
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 267,
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "price": 339.21,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.15722006743039,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 277.33,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -18.242386722089563,
      "weeks": 8,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "11.6% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-24.7",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-32.8",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.9",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-17.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 7,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 31
    },
    "volume_ratio": 98.27530906383085,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 53,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 52,
          "positive_rate": 67.3,
          "median_return": 3.34,
          "bar_width": 16.7,
          "average_return": 2.25,
          "best_return": 13.77,
          "worst_return": -16.06
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 51,
          "positive_rate": 60.8,
          "median_return": 1.6,
          "bar_width": 8.0,
          "average_return": 3.86,
          "best_return": 25.31,
          "worst_return": -18.17
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 39,
          "positive_rate": 43.6,
          "median_return": -6.5,
          "bar_width": 32.5,
          "average_return": 1.96,
          "best_return": 40.31,
          "worst_return": -19.63
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave decline mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 339.21; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 12,
      "constructive_percent": 50,
      "rising_cycle_count": 7,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 29,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 469,
          "positive_rate": 58.8,
          "median_return": 1.94,
          "average_return": 1.83,
          "median_excess_return": 0.13,
          "excess_observations": 469,
          "p10": -7.42,
          "p90": 11.29
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 193,
          "positive_rate": 64.2,
          "median_return": 4.64,
          "average_return": 5.08,
          "median_excess_return": -0.08,
          "excess_observations": 193,
          "p10": -10.75,
          "p90": 20.79
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 122,
          "positive_rate": 67.2,
          "median_return": 7.51,
          "average_return": 7.91,
          "median_excess_return": -1.01,
          "excess_observations": 122,
          "p10": -15.74,
          "p90": 33.12
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-10-29",
      "earnings_weeks": 3,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 23.97,
      "expected_move": 3.29931866,
      "invalidation_distance": 22.312768182309885,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 3 weeks.",
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 24/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 58,
      "label": "Elevated vulnerability",
      "tone": "elevated",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 11.6% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 9% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 3 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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