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"value": 1.5316754606198393 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.553975154897417 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.2192215008099154 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.8547524883324462 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.4374832575868192 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.11845990552741248 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.14873404503795368 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.06001434686901985 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.39816004783970976 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.693337019192126 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.1658640729198346 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.5918431322206383 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.781639283345732 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.9000386326326197 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.983456424225868 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.0033705140680755 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.8319738296533519 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.020232828084154 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.133769609876742 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.2106218178022212 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.277728623323076 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.7940045717419397 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.4649679495363888 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.9852485342259913 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8470290507750237 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.60; Wave 2 8.77.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.67; Wave 3 14.63.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.67; Wave 4 12.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 2.07, 5.86, 0.29.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 14.63; Wave 5 12.33.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 92% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.82\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 225, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 8.595, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.735294117647046, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 234, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.67, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.141942990110522, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 244, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 8.77, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.80693533270853, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.8187001140251, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12.33, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 12.04, "confirmation": 12.33, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.63; Wave 2 12.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 11% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.8187001140251, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12.33, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 14.63, "confirmation": 12.04, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.77; Wave B 12.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 5.86; C length 0.29.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.05\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 244, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 8.77, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.80693533270853, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.8187001140251, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12.33, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 12.33, "confirmation": 12.04, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 14.352107755645973, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.63; Wave 2 12.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 11% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12.33, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 14.63, "confirmation": 12.04, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 14.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 8.970067347278732, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.60; Wave 2 8.77.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.67; Wave 3 14.63.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.67; Wave 4 12.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 2.07, 5.86, 0.29.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 14.63; Wave 5 12.33.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 92% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.82\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 44% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 225, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 8.595, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.735294117647046, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 234, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.67, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.141942990110522, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 244, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 8.77, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.80693533270853, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.8187001140251, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12.33, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 12.04, "confirmation": 12.33, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.279047143095112, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.63; Wave 2 12.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 11% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.149700598802404, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12.33, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 14.63, "confirmation": 12.04, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 92, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 225, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 8.595, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.735294117647046, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 234, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 10.67, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.141942990110522, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 244, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 8.77, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.80693533270853, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.8187001140251, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12.33, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 10.282940588621116, "fair_value_gap": 66.73096559135337, "market_activity": 28.583671, "market_dynamics": 0.197869, "relative_strength": 19.158998, "roc30": 22.079207920792086, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 10.3% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -15.721120984278881 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 7.404181184668987 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 26.331967213114755 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 76.39484978540773 } ], "range": { "high_52": 15.78, "low_52": 6.99, "position_52": 60.75085324232082, "drawdown": -21.86311787072243 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 45.511321927160104, "average_weekly_range": 10.823031635197207, "active_drawdown": -15.721120984278881 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.8187001140251, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 258, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 14.63, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.8187001140251, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 11.180333, "fair_value": 7.395147, "trend_gap": 10.282940588621116, "fair_value_gap": 66.73096559135337 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 259, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 12.04, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.70334928229666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 262, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12.33, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 2.4086378737541607, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "10.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+19.2", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+28.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+22.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 263, "confirmed_pivots": 14 }, "volume_ratio": 185.95639929069807, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 78, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 77, "positive_rate": 45.5, "median_return": -0.52, "bar_width": 2.6, "average_return": 0.77, "best_return": 24.51, "worst_return": -16.58 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 69, "positive_rate": 55.1, "median_return": 1.77, "bar_width": 8.85, "average_return": 2.97, "best_return": 53.03, "worst_return": -18.14 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 60, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 7.39, "bar_width": 36.949999999999996, "average_return": 10.61, "best_return": 55.35, "worst_return": -28.03 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 12.04; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 51.1, "median_return": 0.21, "average_return": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.19, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -7.36, "p90": 8.08 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 186, "positive_rate": 55.4, "median_return": 2.14, "average_return": 1.86, "median_excess_return": 0.52, "excess_observations": 186, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 14.09 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 107, "positive_rate": 57.0, "median_return": 1.79, "average_return": 3.17, "median_excess_return": 1.47, "excess_observations": 107, "p10": -21.92, "p90": 25.42 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 2.351987023519878, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 68, "label": "Elevated vulnerability", "tone": "elevated", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 7, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 33, "explanation": "Price is 10.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 61% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", 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