{ "ticker": { "symbol": "LGWU", "name": "Amundi MSCI EMU Small Cap ESG Broad Transition UCITS ETF DIST", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 438.25, "latest_open": 434.899994, "latest_high": 442.0, "latest_low": 434.350006, "bar_count": 127, "analysis_bar_count": 127, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 15, "date": "2024-06-07", "price": 355.556854, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 24, "date": "2024-08-09", "price": 330.765289, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.972602193178363, 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1.4898845913658798 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.628847748896687 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.6494729140579434 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.8468457802921465 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.9448078935667032 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.9542223811485462 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.9210193352868636 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.8857288751179164 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.5980428067817778 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.5338139064759517 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.2689396508919288 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.0561767199281102 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9420472352762049 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 317.42; Wave B 379.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 101.08; C length 59.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.58\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 317.419739, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.774914461541917, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 418.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.844352628618353, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 438.25, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 438.25, "confirmation": 379.200012, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 317.42; Wave 2 379.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 418.50; Wave 3 438.25.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 39% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.58\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 317.419739, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.774914461541917, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 418.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.844352628618353, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 438.25, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 379.200012, "confirmation": 438.25, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 317.42; Wave B 379.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 101.08; C length 59.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.58\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 317.419739, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.385427610667152, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 418.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.844352628618353, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 438.25, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 438.25, "confirmation": 379.200012, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 317.42; Wave B 379.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 101.08; C length 59.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.58\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 317.419739, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.385427610667152, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 418.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.844352628618353, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 438.25, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 438.25, "confirmation": 379.200012, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 317.42; Wave B 379.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 101.08; C length 59.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.58\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 317.419739, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.774914461541917, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 418.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.844352628618353, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 438.25, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 438.25, "confirmation": 379.200012, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 372.41; Wave 2 379.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 418.50; Wave 3 438.25.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.28\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 372.409271, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.7391373748953094, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 418.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.376364550817, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 438.25, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 379.200012, "confirmation": 438.25, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 80, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 317.419739, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.774914461541917, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 418.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 31.844352628618353, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 438.25, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.3489650924413095, "fair_value_gap": 18.611344015465104, "market_activity": 30.401814, "market_dynamics": 0.184126, "relative_strength": 4.946578, "roc30": 12.689639177520792, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 4.3% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.2057834657946689 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 3.740084637516825 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 7.810578105781058 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 13.122797399756921 } ], "range": { "high_52": 451.950012, "low_52": 368.549988, "position_52": 83.57313182547765, "drawdown": -3.0313113477691456 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 15.997653243427493, "average_weekly_range": 2.089579850383309, "active_drawdown": -2.361592037051239 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 419.984999, "fair_value": 369.484052, "trend_gap": 4.3489650924413095, "fair_value_gap": 18.611344015465104 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 379.200012, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.390678136200712, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 438.25, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 15.572253726616438, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.3% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.9", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+30.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 82, "history_score": 49, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 127, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 48.69751556954397, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 37, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 58.3, "median_return": 0.41, "bar_width": 2.05, "average_return": 0.68, "best_return": 13.81, "worst_return": -8.64 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 81.5, "median_return": 3.92, "bar_width": 19.6, "average_return": 4.24, "best_return": 18.09, "worst_return": -4.65 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 6.99, "bar_width": 34.95, "average_return": 7.63, "best_return": 15.89, "worst_return": 0.13 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 379.20, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 438.25; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 43, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.3% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 5, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 34, "explanation": "Price is 84% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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