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"value": -1.9622651165804759 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.8711652103547995 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.827994162701998 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.85748040314403 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.8743203833384874 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.9371762393895957 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.8940272539720737 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.7603657260189385 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.6455218712694002 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -1.6216228148963747 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.90; Wave 2 31.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 81% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 27.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -60.199713557766444, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 44.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.243734767025096, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.784827642816413, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 27.9, "confirmation": 44.150002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 30 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 70.10; Wave B 44.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 42.20; C length 13.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.31\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 79, "date": "2026-01-02", "price": 70.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.355626661592606, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 27.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -60.199713557766444, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 44.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.243734767025096, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.784827642816413, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.0, "confirmation": 44.150002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 20 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 46.30; Wave B 44.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 18.40; C length 13.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.71\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 46.299999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 27.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.740819432847076, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 44.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.243734767025096, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.784827642816413, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.0, "confirmation": 44.150002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 15.182668673045093, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 46.30; Wave B 44.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 18.40; C length 13.15.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.71\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 46.299999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 27.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -39.740819432847076, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 44.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.243734767025096, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.784827642816413, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.0, "confirmation": 44.150002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 15.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.489167920653182, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.90; Wave 2 31.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 81% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 27.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -60.199713557766444, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 44.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.243734767025096, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.784827642816413, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 27.9, "confirmation": 44.150002, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 30 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.642417544457227, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 30.05; Wave 2 31.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 60% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 30.049999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.93658518973567, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.986695773267749, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.468415886951745, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 30.049999, "confirmation": 32.450001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 75, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 27.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -60.199713557766444, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 44.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.243734767025096, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.784827642816413, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -28.516526298873742, "fair_value_gap": -61.85186409389404, "market_activity": -98.512437, "market_dynamics": 0.256111, "relative_strength": -62.991978, "roc30": -55.072463768115945, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 28.5% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.161401103540803 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.4862236628849224 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -49.34640605643128 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -65.36312849162012 } ], "range": { "high_52": 91.300003, "low_52": 26.1, "position_52": 7.515337077515162, "drawdown": -66.04600330626495 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 96.27961410958373, "average_weekly_range": 11.843934180194948, "active_drawdown": -77.12177121771218 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 27.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -60.199713557766444, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 44.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.243734767025096, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 27.9, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -60.199713557766444, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 43.366667, "fair_value": 81.262162, "trend_gap": -28.516526298873742, "fair_value_gap": -61.85186409389404 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 44.150002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 58.243734767025096, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 31.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.784827642816413, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -29.784827642816413, "weeks": 10, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "28.5% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-63.0", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-98.5", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-55.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 111, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 46.70874873613854, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 24, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 17.4, "median_return": -10.25, "bar_width": 51.25, "average_return": -9.16, "best_return": 11.42, "worst_return": -21.59 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 18, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -21.75, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -27.58, "best_return": -11.98, "worst_return": -52.55 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -49.05, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -48.41, "best_return": -40.25, "worst_return": -56.45 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 44.15, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 27.90; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 15, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 40, "rising_cycle_count": 4, "rising_cycle_percent": 27, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 43.0, "median_return": -0.41, "average_return": -1.26, "median_excess_return": -2.39, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -10.85, "p90": 3.52 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 54, "positive_rate": 33.3, "median_return": -2.21, "average_return": -2.17, "median_excess_return": -11.61, "excess_observations": 54, "p10": -21.6, "p90": 8.64 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 39, "positive_rate": 43.6, "median_return": -1.39, "average_return": -1.79, "median_excess_return": -17.07, "excess_observations": 39, "p10": -23.93, "p90": 10.8 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 10.000000000000004, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 0, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 28.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 8% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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