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1.3075227084760097 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.3306471175411314 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.32351646045903 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.3525511963854577 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.00; Wave 2 30.59.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.55; Wave 3 32.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.29\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.509965716272861, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 32.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.19041523321866, "weeks": 60, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.228179143510946, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 30.59, "confirmation": 32.8011, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.00; Wave B 30.59.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 7.55; C length 2.21.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.29\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.509965716272861, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 32.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.19041523321866, "weeks": 60, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.228179143510946, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 32.8011, "confirmation": 30.59, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.00; Wave 2 30.59.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.55; Wave 3 32.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.29\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.509965716272861, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 32.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.19041523321866, "weeks": 60, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.228179143510946, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 30.59, "confirmation": 32.8011, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.00; Wave 2 30.59.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.55; Wave 3 32.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.29\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.509965716272861, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 32.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.19041523321866, "weeks": 60, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.228179143510946, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 30.59, "confirmation": 32.8011, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.00; Wave 2 30.59.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 32.55; Wave 3 32.80.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.29\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.509965716272861, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 32.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.19041523321866, "weeks": 60, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.228179143510946, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 30.59, "confirmation": 32.8011, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 69, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.509965716272861, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 32.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.19041523321866, "weeks": 60, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.228179143510946, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.150839912253276, "fair_value_gap": 15.90082289298045, "market_activity": 70.936604, "market_dynamics": -0.295838, "relative_strength": -0.521973, "roc30": 10.255798319327724, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 5.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.7980603170115457 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.60572257969663 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 9.794476987447691 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 16.028765679276113 } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.8011, "low_52": 28.4112, "position_52": 100.0, "drawdown": 0.0 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.407304659062486, "average_weekly_range": 1.1918980270230644, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 31.19433, "fair_value": 28.301007, "trend_gap": 5.150839912253276, "fair_value_gap": 15.90082289298045 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 116, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 30.59, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.007067137809192, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.8011, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.228179143510946, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 7.228179143510946, "weeks": 5, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+70.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 47, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 122, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 69.07955100048804, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 33, "positive_rate": 93.9, "median_return": 0.89, "bar_width": 4.45, "average_return": 0.85, "best_return": 3.22, "worst_return": -6.01 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 2.48, "bar_width": 12.4, "average_return": 2.93, "best_return": 6.44, "worst_return": 0.31 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 24, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 5.41, "bar_width": 27.05, "average_return": 5.72, "best_return": 9.79, "worst_return": 2.81 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 32.80, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 30.59; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 6.740932468728179, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 31, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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