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"value": 1.2163224850537353 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.7941499578020871 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.6555732403857916 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.6111109918171697 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.5976863885570946 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.5943400361719666 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.5941380689045258 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.011953965503949116 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.4035474920904951 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.7001606461593028 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.9119211885198552 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -1.063104008302278 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -1.171034614545139 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.35191749674514283 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.8302533255561653 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.9687770518772936 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.0000221010689836 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.9997849830554287 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.35210694138924314 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.8656460931036485 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -1.3764127838947835 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -1.6663102105660805 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.8889398418193237 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -2.1024390538373536 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -2.2698320449161704 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -2.4042546477051454 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -2.5133160312545773 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -2.6021871239071377 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -2.0347409248627697 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.8806892539991509 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.16; Wave 2 9.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.14; Wave 3 5.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 7.14; Wave 4 7.12.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.66\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 173, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 12.162, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.56374080419229, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 179, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.14, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.2925505673409, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 186, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 9.039, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.596638655462186, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 196, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 5.74, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -36.49740015488439, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 202, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.119, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.024390243902427, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 9.039, "confirmation": 5.74, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 86 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.04; Wave 2 7.12.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 186, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 9.039, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.596638655462186, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 196, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 5.74, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -36.49740015488439, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 202, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.119, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.024390243902427, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.039, "confirmation": 5.74, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 14 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.16; Wave 2 9.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 7.14; Wave 3 5.74.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 7.14; Wave 4 7.12.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.66\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 173, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 12.162, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.56374080419229, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 179, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.14, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.2925505673409, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 186, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 9.039, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.596638655462186, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 196, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 5.74, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -36.49740015488439, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 202, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.119, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.024390243902427, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 9.039, "confirmation": 5.74, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 86 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 173, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 12.162, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.56374080419229, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 179, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 7.14, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.2925505673409, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 186, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 9.039, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.596638655462186, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 196, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 5.74, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -36.49740015488439, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 202, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.119, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.024390243902427, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -7.695299837925453, "fair_value_gap": 0.7366411101152339, "market_activity": -44.888789, "market_dynamics": -0.2667, "relative_strength": -30.91157, "roc30": -38.22457480041652, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 7.7% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 7.42417383431417 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -15.189421015010725 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -3.379478827361571 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 18.74895746455379 } ], "range": { "high_52": 17.392, "low_52": 5.676, "position_52": 12.316490269716624, "drawdown": -59.06738730450782 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 46.33174177555651, "average_weekly_range": 7.291607972213092, "active_drawdown": -57.28429137165487 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 196, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 5.74, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.953816549069909, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 186, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 9.039, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.74579033134166, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 186, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 9.039, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 22.74579033134166, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 7.7125, "fair_value": 7.066942, "trend_gap": -7.695299837925453, "fair_value_gap": 0.7366411101152339 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 196, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 5.74, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.953816549069909, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 202, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.119, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.024390243902427, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 24.024390243902427, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "7.7% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-30.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-44.9", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-38.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 6, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 92, "history_score": 78, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 203, "confirmed_pivots": 28 }, "volume_ratio": 122.54466332352962, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 32, "positive_rate": 28.1, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": -0.94, "best_return": 21.86, "worst_return": -29.91 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": -6.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -25.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible strategic count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 5.74, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 9.04; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 384, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.01, "average_return": -0.11, "median_excess_return": -0.07, "excess_observations": 384, "p10": -17.63, "p90": 13.85 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 147, "positive_rate": 46.9, "median_return": -1.56, "average_return": 3.79, "median_excess_return": 1.3, "excess_observations": 147, "p10": -31.68, "p90": 28.03 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 87, "positive_rate": 56.3, "median_return": 2.01, "average_return": 9.65, "median_excess_return": 2.04, "excess_observations": 87, "p10": -37.27, "p90": 57.29 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 26.9700800674252, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 16, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 7.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 12% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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