{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "82840",
    "name": "SPDR Gold Shares",
    "exchange": "HKG"
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  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
  "latest_close": 2654.0,
  "latest_open": 2518.0,
  "latest_high": 2654.0,
  "latest_low": 2518.0,
  "bar_count": 34,
  "analysis_bar_count": 34,
  "reversal_percent": 8.51195065535852,
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    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 2654.0,
      "kind": "low",
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      "weeks": 0,
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    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-03",
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
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    "status": "mixed",
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    "alignment_score": 75,
    "risk_score": 25,
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    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
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          12
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          "end": 6
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          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 0,
          "displacement": 6,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
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          "state": "price above",
          "slope": -46.75,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "value": -0.8055975711499085
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": -0.6670107167943382
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": -0.7415392447474647
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": -0.9658450640867974
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": -0.8687126900008076
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": -0.9244703575411685
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": -1.0516502787291737
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": -1.1316417773627143
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": -1.1909186918735353
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": -1.584493760661273
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": -1.5956540231229461
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": -1.8032561625670351
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": -1.644230119884546
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": -1.511614747848094
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -1.4398284797578613
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -1.2002910227055927
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -1.0444288162029263
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": -0.6337085432890424
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
      "degree": "tactical",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave4",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 85,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 3303.00; Wave 2 3004.00.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 2830.00; Wave 3 2486.00.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 2830.00; Wave 4 2654.00.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 37% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.10\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 6,
          "date": "2026-01-30",
          "price": 3303.0,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": null,
          "weeks": 0,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 14,
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "price": 2830.0,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -14.320314865273993,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 17,
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "price": 3004.0,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 6.148409893992933,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 30,
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "price": 2486.0,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -17.243675099866845,
          "weeks": 13,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 33,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 2654.0,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 6.757843925985519,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "4"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 3004.0,
      "confirmation": 2486.0,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 86
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 3004.00; Wave 2 2654.00.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 17,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
            "price": 3004.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 6.148409893992933,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 30,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 2486.0,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -17.243675099866845,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 33,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 2654.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 6.757843925985519,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 3004.0,
        "confirmation": 2486.0,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 14
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 13.619121048573632,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 8.51195065535852,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 5.958365458750964,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 3303.00; Wave 2 3004.00.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 2830.00; Wave 3 2486.00.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 2830.00; Wave 4 2654.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 37% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.10\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 6,
              "date": "2026-01-30",
              "price": 3303.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 14,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 2830.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.320314865273993,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 17,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 3004.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.148409893992933,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 30,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 2486.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -17.243675099866845,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 33,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 2654.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.757843925985519,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 3004.0,
          "confirmation": 2486.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 86
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 7.9% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 3.7529319781078967
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -9.85054347826087
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -14.221073044602456
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 3566.0,
      "low_52": 396.917877,
      "position_52": 71.22195119586682,
      "drawdown": -25.574873808188446
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 22.99042853390791,
      "average_weekly_range": 1.7770522246825642,
      "active_drawdown": -19.648804117468966
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": null,
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": null,
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 2882.6,
      "fair_value": 2878.0,
      "trend_gap": -7.930340664677719,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.78318276580959
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": null,
      "to": {
        "index": 33,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 2654.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "7.9% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-69.0",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-1.9",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-7.5",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 4,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 67,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 23,
      "history_score": 13,
      "indicator_coverage": 42,
      "structure_score": 0,
      "weekly_observations": 34,
      "confirmed_pivots": 0
    },
    "volume_ratio": 34.75271092303623,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 2486.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 3004.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 22,
      "constructive_count": 6,
      "constructive_percent": 27,
      "rising_cycle_count": 8,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 36,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 427,
          "positive_rate": 42.9,
          "median_return": -1.12,
          "average_return": 0.54,
          "median_excess_return": -0.2,
          "excess_observations": 427,
          "p10": -8.23,
          "p90": 11.24
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 159,
          "positive_rate": 46.5,
          "median_return": -1.58,
          "average_return": 0.27,
          "median_excess_return": -0.04,
          "excess_observations": 159,
          "p10": -14.52,
          "p90": 16.37
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 88,
          "positive_rate": 44.3,
          "median_return": -1.05,
          "average_return": 0.47,
          "median_excess_return": -1.19,
          "excess_observations": 88,
          "p10": -20.39,
          "p90": 23.91
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^HSI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 13.187641296156745,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 14,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 7.9% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 71% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2025-12-19",
      "2025-12-26",
      "2026-01-02",
      "2026-01-09",
      "2026-01-16",
      "2026-01-23",
      "2026-01-30",
      "2026-02-06",
      "2026-02-13",
      "2026-02-20",
      "2026-02-27",
      "2026-03-06",
      "2026-03-13",
      "2026-03-20",
      "2026-03-27",
      "2026-04-03",
      "2026-04-10",
      "2026-04-17",
      "2026-04-24",
      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
      "2026-05-22",
      "2026-05-29",
      "2026-06-05",
      "2026-06-12",
      "2026-06-19",
      "2026-06-26",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-17",
      "2026-07-24",
      "2026-07-31",
      "2026-08-07"
    ],
    "close": [
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      2654.0
    ],
    "trend": [
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    ],
    "sma30": [
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      2922.5333333333333,
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    ],
    "roc30": [
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      -11.150822015725518,
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    ],
    "drawdown": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      -2.968588194684156,
      -1.0010355540214015,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
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