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1.1010093631074944 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.9875692409049563 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.6605696486192318 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.40059208483853703 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.19668447976010195 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.10; Wave 2 21.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.95; Wave 3 26.77.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 22.95; Wave 4 23.09.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 89% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.95\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 21.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.27976662405466, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22.955, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.79146919431278, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 21.295, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2315399695055405, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.73374031462783, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 21.295, "confirmation": 26.775, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.30; Wave 2 23.09.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 21.295, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2315399695055405, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.73374031462783, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.295, "confirmation": 26.775, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 7 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.10; Wave 2 21.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.95; Wave 3 26.77.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 22.95; Wave 4 23.09.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 89% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.95\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 21.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.27976662405466, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22.955, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.79146919431278, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 21.295, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2315399695055405, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.73374031462783, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 21.295, "confirmation": 26.775, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.398131916662722, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.10; Wave 2 23.09.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 65% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 21.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.27976662405466, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 26.895734597156384, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 21.1, "confirmation": 26.775, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.498832447914201, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.10; Wave 2 21.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.95; Wave 3 26.77.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 22.95; Wave 4 23.09.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 89% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.95\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 21.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.27976662405466, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22.955, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.79146919431278, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 21.295, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2315399695055405, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.73374031462783, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 21.295, "confirmation": 26.775, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.54918271353994, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 21.10; Wave 2 21.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 22.95; Wave 3 26.77.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 22.95; Wave 4 23.09.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 89% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.95\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 21.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.27976662405466, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22.955, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.79146919431278, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 21.295, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2315399695055405, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.73374031462783, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 21.295, "confirmation": 26.775, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave4_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 69, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 21.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.27976662405466, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 22.955, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.79146919431278, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 21.295, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2315399695055405, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.73374031462783, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity is positive.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -2.7789473684210533, "fair_value_gap": 14.202475003556156, "market_activity": 4.565259, "market_dynamics": -0.505382, "relative_strength": -3.929836, "roc30": 3.264753879036049, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 4 trough. Price is 2.8% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -10.26039642440731 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -2.8811777076761254 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 1.8077601410934752 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 21.88555743243244 } ], "range": { "high_52": 26.775, "low_52": 18.974001, "position_52": 52.76246029514938, "drawdown": -13.762838468720819 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 23.330572764536754, "average_weekly_range": 3.7200373000055404, "active_drawdown": -13.762838468720819 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 21.295, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2315399695055405, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.73374031462783, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 21.295, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.2315399695055405, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 23.75, "fair_value": 20.218476, "trend_gap": -2.7789473684210533, "fair_value_gap": 14.202475003556156 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 26.775, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 25.73374031462783, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 23.09, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -13.762838468720819, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "2.8% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 111, "confirmed_pivots": 7 }, "volume_ratio": 300.16857629397646, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 4, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 11.92, "bar_width": 59.6, "average_return": 11.19, "best_return": 12.31, "worst_return": 8.59 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 18.87, "bar_width": 94.35000000000001, "average_return": 19.02, "best_return": 24.42, "worst_return": 13.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 4 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 26.77, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 21.30; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 106, "positive_rate": 64.2, "median_return": 1.64, "average_return": 1.51, "median_excess_return": 0.1, "excess_observations": 106, "p10": -6.22, "p90": 7.93 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 77, "positive_rate": 84.4, "median_return": 3.69, "average_return": 5.64, "median_excess_return": 1.0, "excess_observations": 77, "p10": -1.63, "p90": 14.97 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 50, "positive_rate": 80.0, "median_return": 7.06, "average_return": 7.11, "median_excess_return": 1.06, "excess_observations": 50, "p10": -2.3, "p90": 17.34 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 7.773928107405796, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 28, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 53% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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