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1.6832616823001278 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.7152993692201135 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.4847951573619427 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.3591272254441757 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.1935587143516537 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.1576217775028566 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.1484910185750532 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.0940849900248413 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.06339628305119 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.9815448794155159 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.0797500878845114 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.24; Wave 2 5.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 81, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.235138, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.90955460027287, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.184, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.208704657685239, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 5.235138, "confirmation": 4.49966, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 62, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 3.72; Wave B 4.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.52; C length 0.68.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.45\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 3.715247, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.813769927040177, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 81, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.235138, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.90955460027287, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.184, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.208704657685239, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 5.184, "confirmation": 4.49966, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 21 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.50; Wave 2 4.56.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 4.75; Wave 3 5.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.50\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 4.747815, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.514972242347192, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.56472, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.8564055254890888, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.184, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.566659072188433, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 4.56472, "confirmation": 5.184, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 57 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.24; Wave 2 5.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 81, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.235138, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.90955460027287, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.184, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.208704657685239, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 5.235138, "confirmation": 4.49966, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.24; Wave 2 5.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 81, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.235138, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.90955460027287, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.184, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.208704657685239, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 5.235138, "confirmation": 4.49966, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.50; Wave 2 4.56.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 4.75; Wave 3 5.18.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.50\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 4.747815, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.514972242347192, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 4.56472, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.8564055254890888, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.184, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.566659072188433, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 4.56472, "confirmation": 5.184, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 57 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 52, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 81, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.235138, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.90955460027287, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.184, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.208704657685239, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 6.544097109683077, "fair_value_gap": 19.06481751777876, "market_activity": 52.529116, "market_dynamics": 0.450638, "relative_strength": 1.596312, "roc30": 10.365054131887522, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 6.5% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 2.1720428200193456 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.301645338208412 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 10.835400450610901 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 20.885711700636236 } ], "range": { "high_52": 5.235138, "low_52": 4.287417, "position_52": 94.60410817107568, "drawdown": -0.9768223874900701 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 8.792908395789919, "average_weekly_range": 1.7027188431729987, "active_drawdown": -0.9768223874900701 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 81, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.235138, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.90955460027287, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 81, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 5.235138, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 40.90955460027287, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 4.865591, "fair_value": 4.353931, "trend_gap": 6.544097109683077, "fair_value_gap": 19.06481751777876 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 83, "date": "2025-11-07", "price": 4.49966, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.048875120388415, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 122, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 5.184, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.208704657685239, "weeks": 39, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 15.208704657685239, "weeks": 39, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.6", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+52.5", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 47, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 123, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 123.4509130719142, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 39, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 38, "positive_rate": 71.1, "median_return": 1.09, "bar_width": 5.45, "average_return": 1.41, "best_return": 18.64, "worst_return": -13.78 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 93.3, "median_return": 4.41, "bar_width": 22.05, "average_return": 3.94, "best_return": 9.15, "worst_return": -11.49 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 17, "positive_rate": 94.1, "median_return": 9.32, "bar_width": 46.6, "average_return": 7.66, "best_return": 12.14, "worst_return": -7.39 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 4.50, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 5.24; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.9864583333333314, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 36, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 1, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 4, "explanation": "Price is 6.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 12, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 78, "explanation": "Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 95% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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