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"primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.54; Wave 2 24.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 24.540001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.073053814566667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.756315739351443, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 24.334999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 24.540001, "confirmation": 21.655001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.66; Wave 2 24.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 116, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 27.664831, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.3196412264821, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.72371846406725, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 24.334999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 27.664831, "confirmation": 21.655001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.54; Wave 2 24.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 24.540001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.073053814566667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.756315739351443, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 24.334999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 24.540001, "confirmation": 21.655001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 9.224507375494062, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.66; Wave 2 24.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 45% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 116, "date": "2025-10-03", "price": 27.664831, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.3196412264821, "weeks": 25, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.72371846406725, "weeks": 38, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 24.334999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 27.664831, "confirmation": 21.655001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.765317109683788, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.54; Wave 2 24.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 24.540001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.073053814566667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.756315739351443, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 24.334999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 24.540001, "confirmation": 21.655001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.035721976778651, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.54; Wave 2 24.33.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 24.540001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.073053814566667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.756315739351443, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 24.334999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 24.540001, "confirmation": 21.655001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 24.540001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.073053814566667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.756315739351443, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 24.334999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.6612752280600669, "fair_value_gap": 14.457365064826329, "market_activity": -16.257783, "market_dynamics": 0.293248, "relative_strength": -6.639173, "roc30": -5.660015506881186, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 1.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 11.245709714285713 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.8311767238040666 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -5.933521224061796 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 4.4219780917660385 } ], "range": { "high_52": 27.955523, "low_52": 21.23, "position_52": 46.167398431319015, "drawdown": -12.951015082064464 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 18.54921244233964, "average_weekly_range": 2.701872862315655, "active_drawdown": -12.036335953037268 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.756315739351443, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 24.540001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.073053814566667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 144, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 24.540001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.073053814566667, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 23.937334, "fair_value": 21.261191, "trend_gap": 1.6612752280600669, "fair_value_gap": 14.457365064826329 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 154, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 21.655001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.756315739351443, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 24.334999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 12.375884905292784, "weeks": 5, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "1.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-6.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-16.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-5.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 87, "history_score": 62, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 160, "confirmed_pivots": 12 }, "volume_ratio": 38.40519026533334, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 4, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 5.13, "bar_width": 25.65, "average_return": 5.59, "best_return": 8.28, "worst_return": 3.82 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 11.73, "bar_width": 58.650000000000006, "average_return": 12.11, "best_return": 14.33, "worst_return": 10.67 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 8.25, "bar_width": 41.25, "average_return": 7.72, "best_return": 11.01, "worst_return": 3.36 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 21.66, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 24.54; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 93, "positive_rate": 54.8, "median_return": 0.36, "average_return": 0.62, "median_excess_return": 0.49, "excess_observations": 93, "p10": -3.83, "p90": 4.68 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 47, "positive_rate": 55.3, "median_return": 0.88, "average_return": 1.06, "median_excess_return": -1.32, "excess_observations": 47, "p10": -7.37, "p90": 7.93 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 62.8, "median_return": 2.64, "average_return": 2.66, "median_excess_return": 1.32, "excess_observations": 43, "p10": -9.47, "p90": 12.91 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.8424163074755021, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 12, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 46% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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