{ "ticker": { "symbol": "WEBK", "name": "Amundi Prime All Country World UCITS ETF Inc", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 11.582, "latest_open": 11.304, "latest_high": 11.624, "latest_low": 11.268, "bar_count": 126, "analysis_bar_count": 126, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 25, "date": "2024-09-06", "price": 10.566391, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 27, "date": "2024-09-20", "price": 8.293433, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.51120472448918, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, 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"date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.2885686567520203 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.240150276102377 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.1272482925518101 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.0534450687465737 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.9750229884246095 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.030487308234297 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 13.42; Wave 2 11.58.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 84, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 13.42062, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 70.24030046151762, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.806, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.93333094894275, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 11.582, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.111360391597, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 13.42062, "confirmation": 9.806, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 60 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.88; Wave B 9.81.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 5.54; C length 1.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.32\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 55, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 7.883339, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.221309325459274, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 84, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 13.42062, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 70.24030046151762, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.806, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.93333094894275, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 11.582, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.111360391597, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 11.582, "confirmation": 9.806, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 40 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 13.42; Wave 2 11.58.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 84, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 13.42062, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 70.24030046151762, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.806, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.93333094894275, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 11.582, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.111360391597, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 13.42062, "confirmation": 9.806, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 60 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 74, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 84, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 13.42062, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 70.24030046151762, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.806, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.93333094894275, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 11.582, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.111360391597, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.373565818456911, "fair_value_gap": 17.989796969326836, "market_activity": 25.813547, "market_dynamics": 0.163942, "relative_strength": 2.218197, "roc30": 11.669544537318147, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 7.4% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.8108298171589425 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.444282592862352 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 12.504350534104262 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 23.99602510410978 } ], "range": { "high_52": 13.42062, "low_52": 9.324836, "position_52": 55.10944913110656, "drawdown": -13.699963190970305 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 12.702894096511011, "average_weekly_range": 1.5815496331529046, "active_drawdown": -13.699963190970305 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.806, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016878437322211, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 84, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 13.42062, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 70.24030046151762, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 84, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 13.42062, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 70.24030046151762, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 10.78664, "fair_value": 9.816103, "trend_gap": 7.373565818456911, "fair_value_gap": 17.989796969326836 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.806, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.016878437322211, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 125, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 11.582, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.111360391597, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 18.111360391597, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.2", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+25.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+11.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 82, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 126, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 97.46093562651677, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 40, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 39, "positive_rate": 61.5, "median_return": 0.99, "bar_width": 4.95, "average_return": 1.06, "best_return": 37.72, "worst_return": -25.97 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 31, "positive_rate": 83.9, "median_return": 4.18, "bar_width": 20.9, "average_return": 3.39, "best_return": 10.67, "worst_return": -23.45 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 23, "positive_rate": 95.7, "median_return": 9.67, "bar_width": 48.35, "average_return": 7.45, "best_return": 13.8, "worst_return": -20.26 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible strategic count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 9.81, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 13.42; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 15.874805733034007, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 28, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 11, "explanation": "Price is 7.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 55% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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