{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "ARWG",
    "name": "Archer Growth ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE"
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  "latest_week": "2026-07-31",
  "latest_close": 25.895,
  "latest_open": 25.67,
  "latest_high": 25.9408,
  "latest_low": 25.5965,
  "bar_count": 31,
  "analysis_bar_count": 31,
  "reversal_percent": 5.0,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-07-31",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "date": "2026-02-27",
      "price": 25.001718,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 12,
      "date": "2026-03-27",
      "price": 22.6338,
      "kind": "low",
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      "weeks": 4,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 30,
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "price": 25.895,
      "kind": "high",
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      "weeks": 18,
      "confirmed": false
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    "slope": -0.8073270613140888,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 40,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 18,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 2,
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        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "value": null
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        "date": "2026-03-06",
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        "date": "2026-03-13",
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-10",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 5.81784342879903
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  "hurst": {
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    "alignment_score": 25,
    "risk_score": 75,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
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    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
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    "cycles": [
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          15
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        "amplitude": 3.243,
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        "weeks_since_crest": 6,
        "projected_trough_window": 6,
        "projected_crest_window": 4,
        "trough_window": {
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        "crest_window": {
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          "weeks_since_cross": 1,
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "state": "price below",
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          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 1.2794663742505412
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 1.368896397178332
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 1.0986731917409847
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 0.7958339714299492
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 0.7055507164027883
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "tactical",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 63,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 26.44; Wave 2 25.89.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 27,
          "date": "2026-07-10",
          "price": 26.4392,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 16.812908128551097,
          "weeks": 15,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 29,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "price": 25.5079,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -3.5224212532905694,
          "weeks": 2,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 30,
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "price": 25.895,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 1.5175690668381177,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 26.4392,
      "confirmation": 25.5079,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 60
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 22.63; Wave B 25.51.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 3.81; C length 0.39.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.10\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 12,
            "date": "2026-03-27",
            "price": 22.6338,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -9.471021151426472,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 27,
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "price": 26.4392,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 16.812908128551097,
            "weeks": 15,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 29,
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "price": 25.5079,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -3.5224212532905694,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 30,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "price": 25.895,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 1.5175690668381177,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 25.895,
        "confirmation": 25.5079,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 40
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 26.44; Wave 2 25.89.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 27,
              "date": "2026-07-10",
              "price": 26.4392,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 16.812908128551097,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 29,
              "date": "2026-07-24",
              "price": 25.5079,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -3.5224212532905694,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 30,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 25.895,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 1.5175690668381177,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 26.4392,
          "confirmation": 25.5079,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 60
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 4.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 0.5178249798149113
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 4.014363983997163
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 6.554954663428306
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 26.9299,
      "low_52": 22.095,
      "position_52": 78.59521396512854,
      "drawdown": -3.84294037482501
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 17.10787201738533,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.3558073840382487,
      "active_drawdown": -2.058307361796121
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 12,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 22.6338,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -9.471021151426472,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
        "index": 12,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 22.6338,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -9.471021151426472,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 24.722854,
      "fair_value": 24.717441,
      "trend_gap": 4.74114355891111,
      "fair_value_gap": 4.764081362629726
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 12,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 22.6338,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -9.471021151426472,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 30,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 25.895,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 14.408539441012993,
        "weeks": 18,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 14.408539441012993,
      "weeks": 18,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "4.7% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+54.0",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.7",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+5.5",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 67,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 27,
      "history_score": 12,
      "indicator_coverage": 37,
      "structure_score": 33,
      "weekly_observations": 31,
      "confirmed_pivots": 2
    },
    "volume_ratio": 99.00272556835189,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 25.51, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 26.44; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 59,
      "rising_cycle_count": 7,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 41,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 480,
          "positive_rate": 64.4,
          "median_return": 0.68,
          "average_return": 0.64,
          "median_excess_return": -0.51,
          "excess_observations": 480,
          "p10": -4.89,
          "p90": 6.14
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 167,
          "positive_rate": 69.5,
          "median_return": 1.91,
          "average_return": 3.26,
          "median_excess_return": -0.95,
          "excess_observations": 167,
          "p10": -6.47,
          "p90": 12.5
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 90,
          "positive_rate": 67.8,
          "median_return": 3.24,
          "average_return": 2.98,
          "median_excess_return": -2.62,
          "excess_observations": 90,
          "p10": -11.29,
          "p90": 16.2
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 2.1015640084958487,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 38,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 4.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 14,
          "explanation": "Price is 79% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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