{ "ticker": { "symbol": "MVAL", "name": "VANECK MORNINGSTAR WIDE MOAT VALUE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 38.0535, "latest_open": 37.6428, "latest_high": 38.44, "latest_low": 37.6428, "bar_count": 123, "analysis_bar_count": 123, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 30.880518, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 53, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 27.875171, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.732178067738362, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { 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"2026-05-29", "value": 0.3233415064813703 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.2914371326802778 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.3620741907505879 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.35700359636431367 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.4465326843084595 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.5517459797173028 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.587338346380247 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.5907997711730264 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.5615615339597635 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.6459879401256517 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 39.39; Wave 2 38.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 39.3929, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.31895370256202, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 34.7847, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.698047110012203, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.0535, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.397234991246147, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 39.3929, "confirmation": 34.7847, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 60 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.88; Wave B 34.78.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 11.52; C length 3.27.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.28\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 27.875171, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.732178067738362, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 39.3929, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.31895370256202, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 34.7847, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.698047110012203, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.0535, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.397234991246147, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 38.0535, "confirmation": 34.7847, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 40 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 39.39; Wave 2 38.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 39.3929, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.31895370256202, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 34.7847, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.698047110012203, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.0535, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.397234991246147, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 39.3929, "confirmation": 34.7847, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 60 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 37, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 39.3929, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.31895370256202, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 34.7847, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.698047110012203, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 122, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.0535, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.397234991246147, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.9961490020428614, "fair_value_gap": 14.822904148198626, "market_activity": 31.716813, "market_dynamics": 0.424571, "relative_strength": -2.902777, "roc30": 4.224754183670666, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 3.0% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.7293739607449015 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.6308119361554505 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 1.0773509279402032 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 16.098848054498035 } ], "range": { "high_52": 39.599, "low_52": 32.830381, "position_52": 77.16668643928698, "drawdown": -3.9028763352609843 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 15.408361940265516, "average_weekly_range": 2.1156580234306177, "active_drawdown": -3.40010509508058 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 34.7847, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.338149526368781, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 39.3929, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.31895370256202, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 39.3929, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.31895370256202, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 36.946527, "fair_value": 33.141036, "trend_gap": 2.9961490020428614, "fair_value_gap": 14.822904148198626 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 34.7847, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.338149526368781, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 122, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.0535, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.397234991246147, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 9.397234991246147, "weeks": 11, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-2.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+31.7", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 47, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 123, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 43.10009087368557, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 71.4, "median_return": 1.71, "bar_width": 8.55, "average_return": 0.84, "best_return": 7.32, "worst_return": -11.31 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 2.85, "bar_width": 14.25, "average_return": 2.25, "best_return": 14.1, "worst_return": -11.18 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 29, "positive_rate": 82.8, "median_return": 4.92, "bar_width": 24.6, "average_return": 6.81, "best_return": 17.52, "worst_return": -2.5 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible strategic count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 34.78, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 39.39; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 3.5197813604530404, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 13, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 1, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 9, "explanation": "Price is 77% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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