{ "ticker": { "symbol": "2836", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core SENSEX India ETF", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 36.060001, "latest_open": 35.700001, "latest_high": 36.400002, "latest_low": 35.700001, "bar_count": 120, "analysis_bar_count": 120, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 65, "date": "2025-07-25", "price": 40.791866, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 66, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 5.116318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -87.45750439560672, "weeks": 1, 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"Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 33.98; Wave B 34.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.74; C length 1.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.71\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 33.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.77728232285614, "weeks": 23, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 36.720001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.063569746909968, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 34.119999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.080615275582382, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 36.060001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.685820799701664, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 36.060001, "confirmation": 34.119999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 34 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 36.72; Wave 2 36.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 36.720001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.063569746909968, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 34.119999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.080615275582382, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 36.060001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.685820799701664, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 36.720001, "confirmation": 34.119999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 19 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 34.12; Wave 2 34.54.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 35.94; Wave 3 36.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 77% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.84\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 110, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 34.119999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.080615275582382, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 35.939999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.334115044962341, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 34.540001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.89537573442894, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 36.060001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.40069471914608, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 34.540001, "confirmation": 36.060001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 47 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 33.98; Wave 2 36.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 33.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.77728232285614, "weeks": 23, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 36.720001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.063569746909968, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 36.060001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.7973855719666338, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 33.98, "confirmation": 36.720001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 33.98; Wave B 34.12.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.74; C length 1.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.71\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 33.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.77728232285614, "weeks": 23, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 36.720001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.063569746909968, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 34.119999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.080615275582382, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 36.060001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.685820799701664, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 36.060001, "confirmation": 34.119999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 34 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 34.12; Wave 2 34.54.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 35.94; Wave 3 36.06.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 77% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.84\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 110, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 34.119999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.080615275582382, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 35.939999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.334115044962341, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 34.540001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.89537573442894, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 36.060001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.40069471914608, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 34.540001, "confirmation": 36.060001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 47 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 59, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 101, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 33.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.77728232285614, "weeks": 23, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 36.720001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.063569746909968, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 34.119999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.080615275582382, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 36.060001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.685820799701664, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -0.2930901952109635, "fair_value_gap": -5.678805371620653, "market_activity": -24.827946, "market_dynamics": 0.443157, "relative_strength": -1.095181, "roc30": -9.214501278587589, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 0.3% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.4631400826353471 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.2352667387778415 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -8.244269929879643 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -9.128530281530441 } ], "range": { "high_52": 41.505082, "low_52": 5.096507, "position_52": 85.04450943218734, "drawdown": -13.119070575502061 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 17.45336864945673, "average_weekly_range": 2.581269233325718, "active_drawdown": -16.90363455795696 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 34.119999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.080615275582382, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 36.720001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.063569746909968, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 36.720001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.063569746909968, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 36.166, "fair_value": 38.231069, "trend_gap": -0.2930901952109635, "fair_value_gap": -5.678805371620653 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 34.119999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.080615275582382, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 36.060001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.685820799701664, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 5.685820799701664, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "0.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-24.8", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-9.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 120, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 75.97956241347747, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 9, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 37.5, "median_return": -0.76, "bar_width": 3.8, "average_return": 0.12, "best_return": 5.83, "worst_return": -4.21 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 1.23, "bar_width": 6.15, "average_return": -0.51, "best_return": 5.0, "worst_return": -11.75 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -12.88, "bar_width": 64.4, "average_return": -13.21, "best_return": -12.21, "worst_return": -14.87 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 34.12, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 36.06; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 107, "positive_rate": 36.4, "median_return": -2.0, "average_return": -0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.02, "excess_observations": 107, "p10": -8.21, "p90": 9.22 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 64, "positive_rate": 35.9, "median_return": -3.81, "average_return": -1.99, "median_excess_return": -0.37, "excess_observations": 64, "p10": -17.47, "p90": 13.34 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 52, "positive_rate": 36.5, "median_return": -1.73, "average_return": -0.77, "median_excess_return": -2.39, "excess_observations": 52, "p10": -17.67, "p90": 16.24 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 14, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 6, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 40, "explanation": "Price is 85% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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