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"2026-02-06", "value": 0.3750046639457252 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.9560299839919834 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.5331331799405976 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.8752013062394977 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 2.1237006586240956 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 2.0528504925204434 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.7385325159339742 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.9716732450322518 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.7026654856004408 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 1.056984653537089 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.730080337092886 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 2.1431597529913597 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.140804322654638 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 2.3711601702977227 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 2.147657592342089 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 2.307185440093882 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.342048098873621 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.187243242582293 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 2.331992312374326 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.0176597372941476 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.048447590339589 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.3227633258664193 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.220593300032859 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 2.1793293277765997 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 2.304630535039058 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 2.466860330996258 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 2.280046231078222 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10743.07; Wave 2 11403.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 12210.73; Wave 3 12470.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.73\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 10743.069336, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.25479722203891, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 12210.733398, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.661496692401126, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12470.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.357186705253003, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11403.0, "confirmation": 12470.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 68, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10743.07; Wave B 11403.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1467.66; C length 1067.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.73\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 10743.069336, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.25479722203891, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 12210.733398, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.661496692401126, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12470.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.357186705253003, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 12470.0, "confirmation": 11403.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11345.48; Wave 2 11403.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 12210.73; Wave 3 12470.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.23\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 11345.484375, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.620800031379814, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 12210.733398, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.6263735808987905, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12470.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.357186705253003, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11403.0, "confirmation": 12470.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10743.07; Wave 2 11403.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 12210.73; Wave 3 12470.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.73\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 10743.069336, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.25479722203891, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 12210.733398, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.661496692401126, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12470.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.357186705253003, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11403.0, "confirmation": 12470.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11345.48; Wave 2 11403.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 12210.73; Wave 3 12470.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 93% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.23\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 11345.484375, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.620800031379814, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 12210.733398, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.6263735808987905, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12470.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.357186705253003, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 11403.0, "confirmation": 12470.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 10743.069336, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.25479722203891, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 12210.733398, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.661496692401126, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12470.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.357186705253003, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.8431495061849232, "fair_value_gap": 6.478928612087451, "market_activity": 73.419191, "market_dynamics": 0.750978, "relative_strength": -17.184615, "roc30": 8.865901195495512, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 2.8% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 1.1149401986620717 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.7332722810915391 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 7.076064096263659 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 7.986669107182702 } ], "range": { "high_52": 13758.165008, "low_52": 10931.727941, "position_52": 54.424422781602324, "drawdown": -9.362912912085056 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.496086195267873, "average_weekly_range": 3.078934564360472, "active_drawdown": -1.8496654860291224 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 12125.26071, "fair_value": 11711.237296, "trend_gap": 2.8431495061849232, "fair_value_gap": 6.478928612087451 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 11403.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.61494581588604, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 12470.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.357186705253003, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 9.357186705253003, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-17.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+73.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+8.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 112, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 178.0579039463152, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 35, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 55.9, "median_return": 0.44, "bar_width": 2.2, "average_return": 0.33, "best_return": 4.85, "worst_return": -6.39 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 56.0, "median_return": 1.12, "bar_width": 5.6000000000000005, "average_return": 1.16, "best_return": 6.3, "worst_return": -3.27 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 85.7, "median_return": 4.07, "bar_width": 20.35, "average_return": 3.61, "best_return": 9.19, "worst_return": -1.69 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 12470.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 11403.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 42, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 4, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 209, "positive_rate": 56.5, "median_return": 0.91, "average_return": 2.59, "median_excess_return": -4.81, "excess_observations": 209, "p10": -7.69, "p90": 15.99 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 67, "positive_rate": 73.1, "median_return": 6.5, "average_return": 9.85, "median_excess_return": -16.83, "excess_observations": 67, "p10": -8.46, "p90": 37.02 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 64.3, "median_return": 8.85, "average_return": 12.79, "median_excess_return": -52.18, "excess_observations": 28, "p10": -18.21, "p90": 40.29 } ], "benchmark": "^KS11", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 8.55653568564555, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 8, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 54% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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