{ "ticker": { "symbol": "XIMR", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY BUFFER & PREMIUM INCOME ETF - MARCH", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 31.395, "latest_open": 31.18, "latest_high": 31.52, "latest_low": 31.18, "bar_count": 125, "analysis_bar_count": 125, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2024-03-22", "price": 26.825223, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.395, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.035373759987003, "weeks": 124, "confirmed": 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1.0320243040629438 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.2552121692204534 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.380674542857602 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.3668902151878832 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.3514604502461995 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.3155966146311242 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.2920717746026398 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.2970771972604247 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.202324989137171 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.142089254732711 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.1041008308721036 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0579967788343057 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.9565761588372665 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.906461808206583 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.8564752278128889 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.8147276365487546 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.8216205768960496 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8605866340793524 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 73, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.7601244030891166, "fair_value_gap": 8.184111680600115, "market_activity": 37.470257, "market_dynamics": -0.499869, "relative_strength": -8.097397, "roc30": 3.9516596803778676, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 1.8% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.5974227642018557 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.8739776689850371 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 3.63914523305487 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 6.573766613600995 } ], "range": { "high_52": 31.52, "low_52": 29.457427, "position_52": 93.9396084405255, "drawdown": -0.3965736040609137 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 2.6287076977915076, "average_weekly_range": 0.5264820777743753, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 30.851967, "fair_value": 29.019973, "trend_gap": 1.7601244030891166, "fair_value_gap": 8.184111680600115 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-03-22", "price": 26.825223, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 31.395, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.035373759987003, "weeks": 124, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 17.035373759987003, "weeks": 124, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "1.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+37.5", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 65, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 125, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 55.90062111801242, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 42, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 41, "positive_rate": 85.4, "median_return": 0.32, "bar_width": 1.6, "average_return": 0.48, "best_return": 2.84, "worst_return": -0.29 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 1.53, "bar_width": 7.65, "average_return": 1.87, "best_return": 3.18, "worst_return": 0.54 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 3.38, "bar_width": 16.9, "average_return": 3.41, "best_return": 4.63, "worst_return": 1.9 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 33, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 76, "explanation": "Price is 94% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 94% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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