{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "LUNL",
    "name": "Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE"
  },
  "latest_week": "2026-07-31",
  "latest_close": 2.94,
  "latest_open": 3.38,
  "latest_high": 3.66,
  "latest_low": 2.48,
  "bar_count": 29,
  "analysis_bar_count": 29,
  "reversal_percent": 16.0,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-07-31",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "index": 0,
      "date": "2026-01-16",
      "price": 24.69,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 6,
      "date": "2026-02-27",
      "price": 10.67,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -56.78412312677198,
      "weeks": 6,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 13,
      "date": "2026-04-17",
      "price": 23.82,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 123.2427366447985,
      "weeks": 7,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 15,
      "date": "2026-05-01",
      "price": 19.97,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -16.162888329135185,
      "weeks": 2,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 19,
      "date": "2026-05-29",
      "price": 49.735,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 149.04857285928895,
      "weeks": 4,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 28,
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "price": 2.94,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -94.08866995073892,
      "weeks": 9,
      "confirmed": false
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  "cycle": {
    "phase": "falling",
    "trend_bias": "bearish",
    "oscillator": -78.95156354055209,
    "slope": -36.220687615725744,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 11,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 9,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0,
    "series": [
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        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "value": null
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "value": null
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "value": null
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 0.0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 36.55673752632886
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 37.26657796775781
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 33.24318620806664
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 22.9530291064315
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": -27.685116918201075
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": -42.73087592482634
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": -56.47843970851612
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -66.19080177296891
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -72.492227461221
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -78.95156354055209
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  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
    "phase": "falling",
    "alignment_score": 50,
    "risk_score": 50,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
    "nearest_trough_window": 19,
    "nearest_crest_window": null,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 8,
        "period_range": [
          5,
          11
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        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "troughing",
        "value": -1.7270865273197265,
        "slope": 0.3288036656722739,
        "amplitude": 40.083,
        "weeks_since_trough": 2,
        "weeks_since_crest": 9,
        "projected_trough_window": 6,
        "projected_crest_window": 7,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 3,
          "midpoint": 6,
          "end": 9
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        "crest_window": {
          "start": 4,
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          "end": 10
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        "fld": {
          "value": 9.15,
          "state": "crossed down",
          "weeks_since_cross": 8,
          "displacement": 4,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 0.5700000000000003,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": -1.3375,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
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          16,
          26
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            "value": 1.739409419173188
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            "date": "2026-06-05",
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            "date": "2026-07-03",
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            "date": "2026-07-10",
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "fld": {
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -1.4521396065639403
      }
    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 24.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 16.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 11.2,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 0 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -63.88206388206389
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -85.27791687531297
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -83.21170384075103
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 56.68,
      "low_52": 2.48,
      "position_52": 0.8487084870848708,
      "drawdown": -94.81298517995766
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 194.9169748987625,
      "average_weekly_range": 55.43656455650317,
      "active_drawdown": -94.08866995073892
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": null,
      "resistance": {
        "index": 19,
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "price": 49.735,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 149.04857285928895,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 19,
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "price": 49.735,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 149.04857285928895,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": null,
      "fair_value": 16.706445,
      "trend_gap": null,
      "fair_value_gap": -82.40200114386992
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 19,
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "price": 49.735,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 149.04857285928895,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 28,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 2.94,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -94.08866995073892,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -94.08866995073892,
      "weeks": 9,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The 30-week trend line is not available."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 3,
      "agreement": 67,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 36,
      "history_score": 11,
      "indicator_coverage": 34,
      "structure_score": 83,
      "weekly_observations": 29,
      "confirmed_pivots": 5
    },
    "volume_ratio": 113.66319142264368,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 59,
      "rising_cycle_count": 6,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 35,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 0,
          "positive_rate": null,
          "median_return": null,
          "average_return": null,
          "median_excess_return": null,
          "excess_observations": 0,
          "p10": null,
          "p90": null
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 29,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 1% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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    "hurstCycles": {
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          "date": "2026-01-16",
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          "date": "2026-01-23",
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