{ "ticker": { "symbol": "GXAI", "name": "Global X Artificial Intelligence ETF", "exchange": "ASX" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 15.46, "latest_open": 15.31, "latest_high": 16.360001, "latest_low": 15.31, "bar_count": 120, "analysis_bar_count": 120, "reversal_percent": 5.624369342085169, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 50, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 11.460045, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 53, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 10.417329, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.098707727587446, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": 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protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.35; Wave 2 15.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 114, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 17.352777, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.20554524361949, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.405950932234077, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 15.46, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.352777, "confirmation": 15.2, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 12.93; Wave B 15.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.42; C length 0.26.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.06\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 12.93, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.59709379128138, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 17.352777, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.20554524361949, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.405950932234077, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 15.46, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 15.46, "confirmation": 15.2, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.82; Wave 2 15.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 16.82, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.631391200951255, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 15.46, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 16.82, "confirmation": 15.2, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.99899094733627, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.82; Wave 2 15.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 16.82, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.631391200951255, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 15.46, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 16.82, "confirmation": 15.2, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.624369342085169, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.35; Wave 2 15.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 114, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 17.352777, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.20554524361949, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.405950932234077, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 15.46, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.352777, "confirmation": 15.2, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.937058539459618, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.35; Wave 2 15.46.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 114, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 17.352777, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.20554524361949, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.405950932234077, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 15.46, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.352777, "confirmation": 15.2, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 71, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 114, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 17.352777, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.20554524361949, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.405950932234077, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 15.46, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.589843719376589, "fair_value_gap": 21.978420549876525, "market_activity": 24.850592, "market_dynamics": 0.577093, "relative_strength": 5.474446, "roc30": 5.170068027210895, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 3.6% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -7.705801436613527 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.529010238907854 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 5.170068027210895 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 18.28615149196634 } ], "range": { "high_52": 17.889999, "low_52": 12.48, "position_52": 55.08318947933264, "drawdown": -13.583002436165584 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 28.42181858421915, "average_weekly_range": 5.3976387038608875, "active_drawdown": -10.907631671864387 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.405950932234077, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 114, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 17.352777, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.20554524361949, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 114, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 17.352777, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.20554524361949, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 14.924243, "fair_value": 12.674373, "trend_gap": 3.589843719376589, "fair_value_gap": 21.978420549876525 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 15.2, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.405950932234077, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 15.46, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 1.710526315789484, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.5", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+24.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.2", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 120, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 120.47113027317916, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 43, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 1.32, "bar_width": 6.6000000000000005, "average_return": 1.12, "best_return": 11.97, "worst_return": -12.41 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 54.3, "median_return": 1.34, "bar_width": 6.7, "average_return": 2.4, "best_return": 17.82, "worst_return": -12.99 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 33, "positive_rate": 72.7, "median_return": 9.62, "bar_width": 48.099999999999994, "average_return": 6.69, "best_return": 23.07, "worst_return": -12.52 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 15.20, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 17.35; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 44, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 442, "positive_rate": 63.8, "median_return": 0.34, "average_return": 0.56, "median_excess_return": 0.19, "excess_observations": 442, "p10": -4.65, "p90": 5.23 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 150, "positive_rate": 69.3, "median_return": 1.12, "average_return": 2.34, "median_excess_return": 1.3, "excess_observations": 150, "p10": -5.99, "p90": 11.86 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 80, "positive_rate": 77.5, "median_return": 2.99, "average_return": 5.2, "median_excess_return": 1.93, "excess_observations": 80, "p10": -8.57, "p90": 19.11 } ], "benchmark": "^AXJO", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": "2026-08-12", "earnings_weeks": 3, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 12.243059508408788, "collision": false, "flags": [ "Earnings are due in about 3 weeks." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 34, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 55% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Earnings are about 3 week(s) away." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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