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0.6390785357628633 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.7477907872784388 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.6237362549470102 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.2676977799198963 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.2993063460763543 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.18058074300858507 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.22703466523580923 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.005295104434460657 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.16538399279265048 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.17619602194786305 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.0406187402673687 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.34043269681210153 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.7387351981735627 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.8141246019375483 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.8012025977913999 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.7356764906418753 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.5194439496877643 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.7664809996066639 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.7589628720354255 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7018486857582668 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.6940800106689013 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.14; Wave 2 18.19.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 155, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 17.136, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.676832589042584, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 156, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.618, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.648459383753497, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 18.194, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.2773659899022425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.136, "confirmation": 18.618, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.29; Wave 2 16.22.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 18.11; Wave 3 18.19.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.70\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 124, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 15.29, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.043092987447356, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 18.114, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.469587965990854, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 16.219999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.456006403886494, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 18.194, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.170167211477619, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 16.219999, "confirmation": 18.194, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 49 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.29; Wave B 16.22.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.82; C length 1.97.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.70\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 124, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 15.29, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.043092987447356, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 18.114, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.469587965990854, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 16.219999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.456006403886494, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 18.194, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.170167211477619, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 18.194, "confirmation": 16.219999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 9.383320821333923, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.29; Wave 2 16.22.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 18.11; Wave 3 18.19.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 67% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.70\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 124, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 15.29, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.043092987447356, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 132, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 18.114, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.469587965990854, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 147, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 16.219999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.456006403886494, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 18.194, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.170167211477619, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 16.219999, "confirmation": 18.194, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 49 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.864575513333701, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.14; Wave 2 18.19.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 155, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 17.136, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.676832589042584, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 156, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.618, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.648459383753497, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 18.194, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.2773659899022425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.136, "confirmation": 18.618, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 13 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.10520285933359, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.14; Wave 2 18.19.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 155, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 17.136, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.676832589042584, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 156, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.618, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.648459383753497, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 18.194, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.2773659899022425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.136, "confirmation": 18.618, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 81, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 155, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 17.136, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.676832589042584, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 156, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.618, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.648459383753497, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 18.194, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.2773659899022425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.216284987277339, "fair_value_gap": 43.74418118118939, "market_activity": 27.093359, "market_dynamics": 0.636274, "relative_strength": 4.90744, "roc30": 14.370128237364845, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 5.2% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 6.174136321195144 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 12.004439300938152 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 2.744522249830589 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 15.929654645087282 } ], "range": { "high_52": 19.6134, "low_52": 14.868, "position_52": 70.08892822522864, "drawdown": -7.236889065638795 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 26.180704103096613, "average_weekly_range": 4.06250246765604, "active_drawdown": -7.236889065638795 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 155, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 17.136, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.676832589042584, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 156, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.618, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.648459383753497, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 155, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 17.136, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.676832589042584, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 17.292, "fair_value": 12.657208, "trend_gap": 5.216284987277339, "fair_value_gap": 43.74418118118939 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 156, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 18.618, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.648459383753497, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 159, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 18.194, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.2773659899022425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -2.2773659899022425, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.2% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.9", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+27.1", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 87, "history_score": 62, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 160, "confirmed_pivots": 15 }, "volume_ratio": 63.31609863302793, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 75, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 74, "positive_rate": 58.1, "median_return": 1.32, "bar_width": 6.6000000000000005, "average_return": 1.51, "best_return": 18.97, "worst_return": -22.04 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 70, "positive_rate": 87.1, "median_return": 8.8, "bar_width": 44.0, "average_return": 8.11, "best_return": 24.97, "worst_return": -9.71 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 59, "positive_rate": 91.5, "median_return": 19.1, "bar_width": 95.5, "average_return": 16.69, "best_return": 37.5, "worst_return": -17.18 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 18.62, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 17.14; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 5.815103880400131, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 16, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 70% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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