{ "ticker": { "symbol": "AJAN", "name": "Innovator Equity Defined Protection ETF - 2 Yr to January 2026", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 28.5858, "latest_open": 28.499, "latest_high": 28.619, "latest_low": 28.47, "bar_count": 136, "analysis_bar_count": 136, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2024-01-05", "price": 24.2767, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 135, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 28.5858, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.749941301741988, "weeks": 135, 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0.7129560564768223 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.7206433171203043 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.6826280339170674 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.5673276869242057 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.588096740661752 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.7041742684930388 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 65, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 1.6000105489029959, "fair_value_gap": 7.405718566042087, "market_activity": 35.164946, "market_dynamics": 0.110777, "relative_strength": -8.798006, "roc30": 2.2762400893035992, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 1.6% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.4949903322200693 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.0277434175649311 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 2.2564836344124513 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 4.981765965338809 } ], "range": { "high_52": 28.619, "low_52": 27.22, "position_52": 97.62687634024297, "drawdown": -0.1160068485970886 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 3.0167192540166945, "average_weekly_range": 0.5169986409991421, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 28.135627, "fair_value": 26.614784, "trend_gap": 1.6000105489029959, "fair_value_gap": 7.405718566042087 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-01-05", "price": 24.2767, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 135, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 28.5858, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 17.749941301741988, "weeks": 135, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 17.749941301741988, "weeks": 135, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "1.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.8", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+35.2", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 67, "history_score": 52, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 136, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 100.54179627722479, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 58, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 86.0, "median_return": 0.36, "bar_width": 1.7999999999999998, "average_return": 0.22, "best_return": 1.18, "worst_return": -2.88 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 48, "positive_rate": 89.6, "median_return": 1.28, "bar_width": 6.4, "average_return": 1.22, "best_return": 2.82, "worst_return": -1.3 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 40, "positive_rate": 97.5, "median_return": 2.42, "bar_width": 12.1, "average_return": 2.39, "best_return": 4.08, "worst_return": -0.19 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 36, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 14, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 91, "explanation": "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 98% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", 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