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-0.48473608997316747 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.6443909644969174 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.6069774530335231 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.5880693715935729 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.6462999072364822 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.659526416619356 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.5808614101980847 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.3551837202979752 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 74330.00; Wave 2 61655.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 53995.00; Wave 3 41445.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 53995.00; Wave 4 47000.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.99\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 74330.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.368413025242127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53995.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.357729046145568, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 61655.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.18649874988425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 41445.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.77917443840727, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 47000.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.403305585716009, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 61655.0, "confirmation": 41445.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 48 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 61655.00; Wave 2 47000.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 61655.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.18649874988425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 41445.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.77917443840727, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 47000.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.403305585716009, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 61655.0, "confirmation": 41445.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 3 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 74330.00; Wave 2 61655.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 53995.00; Wave 3 41445.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 53995.00; Wave 4 47000.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.99\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 74330.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.368413025242127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53995.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.357729046145568, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 61655.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.18649874988425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 41445.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.77917443840727, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 47000.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.403305585716009, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 61655.0, "confirmation": 41445.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 48 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 19.24650491447272, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 19.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 12.029065571545448, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 74330.00; Wave 2 61655.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 53995.00; Wave 3 41445.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 53995.00; Wave 4 47000.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.99\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 74330.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.368413025242127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53995.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.357729046145568, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 61655.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.18649874988425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 41445.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.77917443840727, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 47000.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.403305585716009, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 61655.0, "confirmation": 41445.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 48 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.420345900081813, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 74330.00; Wave 2 61655.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 53995.00; Wave 3 41445.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 53995.00; Wave 4 47000.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.99\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 74330.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.368413025242127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53995.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.357729046145568, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 61655.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.18649874988425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 41445.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.77917443840727, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 47000.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.403305585716009, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 61655.0, "confirmation": 41445.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 48 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 78, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 74330.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.368413025242127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53995.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -27.357729046145568, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 61655.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.18649874988425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 41445.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.77917443840727, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 47000.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.403305585716009, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -17.32726675783733, "fair_value_gap": 18.43111325253109, "market_activity": -22.678563, "market_dynamics": -0.926254, "relative_strength": -29.155008, "roc30": -18.853591160220994, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 17.3% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 7.183580387685291 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -20.715249662618085 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -28.315412186379927 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 28.009151292517934 } ], "range": { "high_52": 88995.0, "low_52": 34013.857765, "position_52": 23.61926600123134, "drawdown": -47.18804427215012 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 45.73136264335082, "average_weekly_range": 6.74287484244278, "active_drawdown": -38.267551060616015 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 41445.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.77917443840727, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 61655.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.18649874988425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 95, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 61655.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.18649874988425, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 56850.666667, "fair_value": 39685.517352, "trend_gap": -17.32726675783733, "fair_value_gap": 18.43111325253109 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 41445.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.77917443840727, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 47000.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.403305585716009, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 13.403305585716009, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "17.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-29.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-22.7", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.9", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-18.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 5, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 112, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 68.96944470329989, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 7, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -6.5, "bar_width": 32.5, "average_return": -7.93, "best_return": -0.42, "worst_return": -17.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 41445.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 61655.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 42, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 4, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": -0.44, "median_excess_return": -4.98, "excess_observations": 25, "p10": -13.73, "p90": 7.96 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 9, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 1.92, "average_return": 1.64, "median_excess_return": -30.89, "excess_observations": 9, "p10": -9.26, "p90": 10.95 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 4, "positive_rate": 75.0, "median_return": 0.46, "average_return": 2.22, "median_excess_return": -76.25, "excess_observations": 4, "p10": -0.54, "p90": 6.4 } ], "benchmark": "^KS11", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 31.180851063829788, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 10, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 17.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 24% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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