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        "label": "10w",
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave5",
      "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 39.30; Wave 2 32.10.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 28.20; Wave 3 24.40.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 28.20; Wave 4 27.70.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 11.10, 7.70, 1.75.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 24.40; Wave 5 25.95.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 206,
          "date": "2025-05-30",
          "price": 39.301006,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 68.93617509661676,
          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 219,
          "date": "2025-08-29",
          "price": 28.200001,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -28.246109018176277,
          "weeks": 13,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 233,
          "date": "2025-12-05",
          "price": 32.099998,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 13.829776105327085,
          "weeks": 14,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 261,
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "price": 24.4,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -23.987534204830794,
          "weeks": 28,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 265,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "price": 27.700001,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-02",
          "price": 25.950001,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -6.3176893026104946,
          "weeks": 10,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 27.700001,
      "confirmation": 25.950001,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 90
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 24.40; Wave 2 25.95.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 53% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 261,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 24.4,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -23.987534204830794,
            "weeks": 28,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 265,
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "price": 27.700001,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 25.950001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.3176893026104946,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 24.4,
        "confirmation": 27.700001,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 6
      },
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 32.10; Wave B 27.70.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 7.70; C length 1.75.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.23\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 233,
            "date": "2025-12-05",
            "price": 32.099998,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 13.829776105327085,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 261,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 24.4,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -23.987534204830794,
            "weeks": 28,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 265,
            "date": "2026-07-24",
            "price": 27.700001,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 25.950001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.3176893026104946,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 25.950001,
        "confirmation": 27.700001,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 4
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 13.381057463240618,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 39.30; Wave 2 32.10.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 28.20; Wave 3 24.40.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 28.20; Wave 4 27.70.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 11.10, 7.70, 1.75.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 24.40; Wave 5 25.95.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 206,
              "date": "2025-05-30",
              "price": 39.301006,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 68.93617509661676,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 219,
              "date": "2025-08-29",
              "price": 28.200001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -28.246109018176277,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 233,
              "date": "2025-12-05",
              "price": 32.099998,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.829776105327085,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 24.4,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.987534204830794,
              "weeks": 28,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-24",
              "price": 27.700001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 25.950001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.3176893026104946,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 27.700001,
          "confirmation": 25.950001,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 8.363160914525386,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 39.30; Wave 2 32.10.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 28.20; Wave 3 24.40.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 28.20; Wave 4 27.70.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 11.10, 7.70, 1.75.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 24.40; Wave 5 25.95.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 206,
              "date": "2025-05-30",
              "price": 39.301006,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 68.93617509661676,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 219,
              "date": "2025-08-29",
              "price": 28.200001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -28.246109018176277,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 233,
              "date": "2025-12-05",
              "price": 32.099998,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.829776105327085,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 24.4,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -23.987534204830794,
              "weeks": 28,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-24",
              "price": 27.700001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 25.950001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.3176893026104946,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 27.700001,
          "confirmation": 25.950001,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 90
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 5.85421264016777,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 27.70; Wave 2 25.95.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-24",
              "price": 27.700001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 271,
              "date": "2026-09-04",
              "price": 25.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.942241590532795,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 25.950001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 1.7647098039215698,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 27.700001,
          "confirmation": 25.5,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave5_risk",
    "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 88,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 206,
        "date": "2025-05-30",
        "price": 39.301006,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 68.93617509661676,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 219,
        "date": "2025-08-29",
        "price": 28.200001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -28.246109018176277,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 233,
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "price": 32.099998,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 13.829776105327085,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 24.4,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.987534204830794,
        "weeks": 28,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 27.700001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "4"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 25.950001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.3176893026104946,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "5"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -1.4369766593274262,
      "fair_value_gap": -10.641824796482888,
      "market_activity": -9.402504,
      "market_dynamics": 0.435764,
      "relative_strength": -33.508147,
      "roc30": -6.98924372759856,
      "hurst_alignment": 50,
      "hurst_risk": 50
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave decline mature. Price is 1.4% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 1.7647098039215698
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 2.3668678500986147
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -6.3176893026104946
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -13.210698996655513
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 36.299999,
      "low_52": 23.799999,
      "position_52": 17.200016000000005,
      "drawdown": -28.512391970038347
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 26.200085540111793,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.7649499586466812,
      "active_drawdown": -63.367349606530055
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 24.4,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -23.987534204830794,
        "weeks": 28,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 27.700001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 27.700001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 26.328333,
      "fair_value": 29.040433,
      "trend_gap": -1.4369766593274262,
      "fair_value_gap": -10.641824796482888
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 27.700001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 13.524594262295091,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 25.950001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.3176893026104946,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -6.3176893026104946,
      "weeks": 10,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "1.4% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-33.5",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-9.4",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.4",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-7.0",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 5,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 29
    },
    "volume_ratio": 51.97050856432921,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 96,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 95,
          "positive_rate": 53.7,
          "median_return": 0.77,
          "bar_width": 3.85,
          "average_return": 4.3,
          "best_return": 75.11,
          "worst_return": -18.48
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 88,
          "positive_rate": 61.4,
          "median_return": 2.63,
          "bar_width": 13.149999999999999,
          "average_return": 7.91,
          "best_return": 71.3,
          "worst_return": -18.96
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 78,
          "positive_rate": 59.0,
          "median_return": 3.53,
          "bar_width": 17.65,
          "average_return": 10.21,
          "best_return": 91.5,
          "worst_return": -16.52
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave decline mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 27.70; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 17,
      "constructive_percent": 71,
      "rising_cycle_count": 6,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 25,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 173,
          "positive_rate": 50.9,
          "median_return": 0.25,
          "average_return": 0.58,
          "median_excess_return": -1.37,
          "excess_observations": 173,
          "p10": -9.42,
          "p90": 9.32
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 104,
          "positive_rate": 51.0,
          "median_return": 0.49,
          "average_return": 1.22,
          "median_excess_return": -3.9,
          "excess_observations": 104,
          "p10": -16.52,
          "p90": 19.55
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 79,
          "positive_rate": 48.1,
          "median_return": -0.18,
          "average_return": 4.2,
          "median_excess_return": -7.3,
          "excess_observations": 79,
          "p10": -14.91,
          "p90": 28.78
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^TWII",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 6.743737697736504,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 44,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 1.4% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 17% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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