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      "evidence_weight": 100
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        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 10.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 7.401129932728486,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 52,
      "changes": 3,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 45,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 227,
        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "price": 15.83,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 40.2024690159629,
        "weeks": 29,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 264,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 10.59,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -33.10170562223626,
        "weeks": 37,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 13.6,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 28.423040604343722,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 7.712747526467831,
      "fair_value_gap": 1.4442755778500829,
      "market_activity": 54.862922,
      "market_dynamics": 1.327228,
      "relative_strength": 4.997697,
      "roc30": -2.578796561604593,
      "hurst_alignment": 81,
      "hurst_risk": 22
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 7.7% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 2.3325808878856322
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 4.857363145720886
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 1.9490254872563701
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -2.9957203994293864
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 16.879999,
      "low_52": 10.55,
      "position_52": 48.183261956281484,
      "drawdown": -19.431274847824348
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 35.80597315766907,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.709526819643189,
      "active_drawdown": -68.55364017165181
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 264,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 10.59,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -19.77272727272727,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 239,
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "price": 15.73,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 14.817518248175192,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 239,
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "price": 15.73,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 14.817518248175192,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 12.626175,
      "fair_value": 13.406375,
      "trend_gap": 7.712747526467831,
      "fair_value_gap": 1.4442755778500829
    },
    "active_swing": {
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        "index": 264,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 10.59,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -19.77272727272727,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 13.6,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 28.423040604343722,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": false
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      "move_percent": 28.423040604343722,
      "weeks": 11,
      "status": "Forming"
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    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "7.7% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+5.0",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+54.9",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.3",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-2.6",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 6,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 34
    },
    "volume_ratio": 80.81360608470197,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 44,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 43,
          "positive_rate": 30.2,
          "median_return": -4.19,
          "bar_width": 20.950000000000003,
          "average_return": -5.95,
          "best_return": 12.91,
          "worst_return": -28.55
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 41,
          "positive_rate": 43.9,
          "median_return": -1.11,
          "bar_width": 5.550000000000001,
          "average_return": -6.47,
          "best_return": 14.21,
          "worst_return": -38.07
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 41,
          "positive_rate": 46.3,
          "median_return": -2.44,
          "bar_width": 12.2,
          "average_return": -6.91,
          "best_return": 18.49,
          "worst_return": -43.44
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible strategic count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 10.59, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 15.83; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 42,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 8,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 181,
          "positive_rate": 50.3,
          "median_return": 0.08,
          "average_return": 0.99,
          "median_excess_return": -0.01,
          "excess_observations": 181,
          "p10": -10.24,
          "p90": 10.98
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 98,
          "positive_rate": 56.1,
          "median_return": 1.51,
          "average_return": 3.03,
          "median_excess_return": -1.11,
          "excess_observations": 98,
          "p10": -13.84,
          "p90": 17.93
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 90,
          "positive_rate": 60.0,
          "median_return": 3.23,
          "average_return": 7.48,
          "median_excess_return": 3.71,
          "excess_observations": 90,
          "p10": -18.41,
          "p90": 30.42
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "000001.SS",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 16.397058823529417,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 11,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 13,
          "explanation": "Price is 7.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 48% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 22,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 22/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 48,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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