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2.807433570070155 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 2.855423811760703 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.888156909422366 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 2.8156258664015876 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 2.489621716884714 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 2.374367133969213 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.2340457721002043 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.1173062654443884 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 2.1054063619252004 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.125608862339517 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.0123005546899413 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.8720603134813987 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.542607849298649 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.9583323963768204 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.44964205442664373 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.03964200343358437 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.10825707413717148 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": 0.1759942771942863 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 84.20; Wave 2 117.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 17% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -66.3200012, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 117.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 84.199997, "confirmation": 124.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 5 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 250.00; Wave B 124.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 165.80; C length 7.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.04\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 733.3333333333334, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -66.3200012, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 117.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 117.5, "confirmation": 124.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 5 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 250.00; Wave 2 168.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 147.50; Wave 3 84.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 147.50; Wave 4 124.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 102.50, 84.30, 7.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 84.20; Wave 5 117.50.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.82\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 733.3333333333334, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 147.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.0, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 168.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.23728813559322, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.02967537091988, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 117.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 124.5, "confirmation": 117.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 89 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 84.20; Wave 2 117.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 17% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -66.3200012, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 117.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 84.199997, "confirmation": 124.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 15.107014220995906, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 84.20; Wave 2 117.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 17% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -66.3200012, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 117.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 84.199997, "confirmation": 124.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 5 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 15.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 10.574909954697134, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 250.00; Wave 2 168.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 147.50; Wave 3 84.20.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 147.50; Wave 4 124.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 102.50, 84.30, 7.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 84.20; Wave 5 117.50.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.82\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 250.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 733.3333333333334, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 95, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 147.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.0, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 168.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.23728813559322, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.02967537091988, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 117.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 124.5, "confirmation": 117.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 89 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 10.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 61, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -66.3200012, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 117.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.019861816474580293, "fair_value_gap": 110.027683257376, "market_activity": -5.134809, "market_dynamics": -0.931465, "relative_strength": 14.276594, "roc30": 281.4935188796597, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 0.0% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 18.5671063282968 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -20.338983050847457 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 258.23171823877186 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 186.9352799283204 } ], "range": { "high_52": 283.0, "low_52": 29.15, "position_52": 34.80401812093756, "drawdown": -58.48056537102474 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 242.980197921902, "average_weekly_range": 23.667427044683624, "active_drawdown": -53.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -66.3200012, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 84.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -66.3200012, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 117.476667, "fair_value": 55.945006, "trend_gap": 0.019861816474580293, "fair_value_gap": 110.027683257376 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 124.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.86223804734816, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 117.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -5.622489959839357, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.3", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-5.1", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.9", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+281.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 109, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 75.98027233977096, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 17, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": -0.15, "bar_width": 0.75, "average_return": -4.72, "best_return": 13.94, "worst_return": -41.32 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 11, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 237.9, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 242.48, "best_return": 711.69, "worst_return": 4.96 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 11, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 359.09, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 350.31, "best_return": 499.69, "worst_return": 148.36 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 124.50, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 84.20; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 152, "positive_rate": 52.6, "median_return": 0.37, "average_return": 2.45, "median_excess_return": -0.99, "excess_observations": 152, "p10": -7.38, "p90": 11.48 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 96, "positive_rate": 53.1, "median_return": 0.93, "average_return": 8.48, "median_excess_return": -3.17, "excess_observations": 96, "p10": -15.68, "p90": 26.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 75, "positive_rate": 52.0, "median_return": 1.59, "average_return": 8.52, "median_excess_return": -3.66, "excess_observations": 75, "p10": -21.3, "p90": 41.66 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 28.34042808510639, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 25, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 35% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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