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"2026-05-08", "value": 0.5342759153126254 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.594394264838918 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.6914119842025793 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.8000492196050791 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.8213173942635031 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.8056192778182669 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.8780955564129195 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.8242747717844414 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.8739529093961405 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.8506038353778707 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7853045322673445 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.6684240598942887 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.6938044317420929 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8947159575337378 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Cycle rollover risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 43, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 9.067409177269727, "fair_value_gap": 22.98523957664903, "market_activity": 43.03703, "market_dynamics": 1.181033, "relative_strength": 4.738505, "roc30": 9.701928413152276, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as cycle rollover risk. Price is 9.1% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.277780555555546 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 9.217179053006785 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 13.585483013176482 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 17.857772107656057 } ], "range": { "high_52": 37.619999, "low_52": 30.559999, "position_52": 98.86688385269116, "drawdown": -0.21264753356320754 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.649627504472148, "average_weekly_range": 2.2678136631094254, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 31.450001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.014305865112851, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 34.419082, "fair_value": 30.523989, "trend_gap": 9.067409177269727, "fair_value_gap": 22.98523957664903 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 31.450001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.014305865112851, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 119, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 37.540001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 19.36406933659556, "weeks": 20, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 19.36406933659556, "weeks": 20, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "9.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+4.7", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+43.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.2", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 46, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 120, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 139.56890546445484, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 40, "positive_rate": 75.0, "median_return": 1.35, "bar_width": 6.75, "average_return": 1.22, "best_return": 5.76, "worst_return": -8.44 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 31, "positive_rate": 61.3, "median_return": 2.25, "bar_width": 11.25, "average_return": 2.15, "best_return": 10.51, "worst_return": -6.52 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 4.0, "bar_width": 20.0, "average_return": 3.66, "best_return": 11.87, "worst_return": -6.2 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 38, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 44, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 441, "positive_rate": 63.9, "median_return": 0.34, "average_return": 0.57, "median_excess_return": 0.19, "excess_observations": 441, "p10": -4.66, "p90": 5.25 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 149, "positive_rate": 70.5, "median_return": 1.11, "average_return": 2.48, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 149, "p10": -6.07, "p90": 11.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 78, "positive_rate": 78.2, "median_return": 2.99, "average_return": 5.68, "median_excess_return": 1.91, "excess_observations": 78, "p10": -8.65, "p90": 19.74 } ], "benchmark": "^AXJO", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 34, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 5, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 24, "explanation": "Price is 9.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 14, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 95, "explanation": "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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