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0.18986671932381083 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.046976585705103935 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.47930008079248376 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.8774658438784575 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.1984882797177532 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.397176814390831 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.4501973693206112 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.2148911710884043 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.9632381240660306 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.8858833463514372 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.01; Wave 2 8.38.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 8.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.262989452425607, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.679151061173535, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.385, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.8724400234055019, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 8.01, "confirmation": 8.545, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.68; Wave B 8.54.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.67; C length 0.16.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.10\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 9.681278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.98208615675816, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 8.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.262989452425607, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.679151061173535, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.385, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.8724400234055019, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 8.385, "confirmation": 8.545, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.68; Wave 2 9.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.16; Wave 3 8.01.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 9.16; Wave 4 8.54.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 0.52, 1.49, 0.16.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 8.01; Wave 5 8.38.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 65% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 9.681278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.98208615675816, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 9.165, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.332746358486984, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 9.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.655210038188771, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 8.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.684210526315793, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.679151061173535, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.385, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.8724400234055019, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 8.545, "confirmation": 8.385, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.01; Wave 2 8.38.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 8.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.262989452425607, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.679151061173535, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.385, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.8724400234055019, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 8.01, "confirmation": 8.545, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.68; Wave 2 9.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.16; Wave 3 8.01.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 9.16; Wave 4 8.54.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 0.52, 1.49, 0.16.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 8.01; Wave 5 8.38.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 65% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 2w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 9.681278, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.98208615675816, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 9.165, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.332746358486984, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 9.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.655210038188771, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 8.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.684210526315793, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.679151061173535, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.385, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.8724400234055019, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 8.545, "confirmation": 8.385, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 59, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 8.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.262989452425607, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.679151061173535, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.385, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.8724400234055019, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -6.305772368952123, "fair_value_gap": 2.656633699828326, "market_activity": -15.965828, "market_dynamics": -0.976091, "relative_strength": -5.182874, "roc30": -3.4443034845148657, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 6.3% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.774752475247521 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -9.838709677419363 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -7.417988734475121 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -2.321156853000853 } ], "range": { "high_52": 9.700641, "low_52": 7.945, "position_52": 25.062071346021185, "drawdown": -13.562413040540305 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.83068640230144, "average_weekly_range": 1.8137402338640058, "active_drawdown": -13.389533902445534 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 8.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.262989452425607, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.679151061173535, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 8.01, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.262989452425607, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 8.949324, "fair_value": 8.168006, "trend_gap": -6.305772368952123, "fair_value_gap": 2.656633699828326 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 8.545, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.679151061173535, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.385, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.8724400234055019, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -1.8724400234055019, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "6.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-5.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-16.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 108, "confirmed_pivots": 11 }, "volume_ratio": 0.12106537530266344, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 2, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 1, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 7.18, "bar_width": 35.9, "average_return": 7.18, "best_return": 7.18, "worst_return": 7.18 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 8.54, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 8.01; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 427, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -1.12, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.2, "excess_observations": 427, "p10": -8.23, "p90": 11.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 159, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -1.58, "average_return": 0.27, "median_excess_return": -0.04, "excess_observations": 159, "p10": -14.52, "p90": 16.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -1.05, "average_return": 0.47, "median_excess_return": -1.19, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -20.39, "p90": 23.91 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.47227191413238, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 9, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 6.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 25% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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