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        "label": "10w",
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  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave4",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 85,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 44.28; Wave 2 41.44.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 38.03; Wave 3 37.10.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 38.03; Wave 4 37.73.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 15% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 11w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 250,
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "price": 44.282507,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 18.15554638576697,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 257,
          "date": "2026-06-05",
          "price": 38.029584,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -14.120526193334092,
          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 268,
          "date": "2026-08-21",
          "price": 41.44,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 8.967797281190343,
          "weeks": 11,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 274,
          "date": "2026-10-02",
          "price": 37.1,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -10.472972972972965,
          "weeks": 6,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 37.73,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 1.6981132075471574,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "4"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 38.029584,
      "confirmation": 37.1,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 90
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 41.44; Wave 2 37.73.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 15% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 268,
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            "price": 41.44,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 8.967797281190343,
            "weeks": 11,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
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          {
            "index": 274,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 37.1,
            "kind": "low",
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            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 37.73,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 1.6981132075471574,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 41.44,
        "confirmation": 37.1,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 10
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 11.287138371539925,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 7.054461482212452,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 44.28; Wave 2 41.44.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 38.03; Wave 3 37.10.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 38.03; Wave 4 37.73.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 15% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 11w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 44.282507,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 18.15554638576697,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 257,
              "date": "2026-06-05",
              "price": 38.029584,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -14.120526193334092,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 268,
              "date": "2026-08-21",
              "price": 41.44,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 8.967797281190343,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 37.1,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.472972972972965,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 37.73,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 1.6981132075471574,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 38.029584,
          "confirmation": 37.1,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 90
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.938123037548716,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_crest_risk",
    "title": "Hurst crest risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 44.282507,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 18.15554638576697,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 257,
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "price": 38.029584,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -14.120526193334092,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 268,
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "price": 41.44,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 8.967797281190343,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 37.1,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.472972972972965,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 37.73,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 1.6981132075471574,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "4"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -5.505450792721121,
      "fair_value_gap": 21.68429250581821,
      "market_activity": -13.506098,
      "market_dynamics": -0.69162,
      "relative_strength": -13.365369,
      "roc30": -1.3751230262346936,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 5.5% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -4.432624113475177
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -6.144278606965188
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -9.739070556918314
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 22.06876434704307
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 47.113554,
      "low_52": 31.271864,
      "position_52": 40.766711127411256,
      "drawdown": -19.91688846059035
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 26.505862791694106,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.14542428851358,
      "active_drawdown": -17.422921037774813
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 37.1,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.472972972972965,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 268,
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "price": 41.44,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 8.967797281190343,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 268,
        "date": "2026-08-21",
        "price": 41.44,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 8.967797281190343,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 39.928229,
      "fair_value": 31.006467,
      "trend_gap": -5.505450792721121,
      "fair_value_gap": 21.68429250581821
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 37.1,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -10.472972972972965,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 37.73,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 1.6981132075471574,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 1.6981132075471574,
      "weeks": 1,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "5.5% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-13.4",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-13.5",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.7",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-1.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 7,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 24
    },
    "volume_ratio": 91.03751535678009,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 55,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 55,
          "positive_rate": 67.3,
          "median_return": 3.08,
          "bar_width": 15.4,
          "average_return": 2.71,
          "best_return": 18.79,
          "worst_return": -8.48
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 52,
          "positive_rate": 78.8,
          "median_return": 7.0,
          "bar_width": 35.0,
          "average_return": 7.35,
          "best_return": 21.23,
          "worst_return": -4.85
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 49,
          "positive_rate": 87.8,
          "median_return": 10.45,
          "bar_width": 52.25,
          "average_return": 11.71,
          "best_return": 32.36,
          "worst_return": -8.3
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "setup",
      "label": "Setup in timing window",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 37.10, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 38.03; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 6,
      "constructive_percent": 35,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 12,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 204,
          "positive_rate": 52.0,
          "median_return": 0.17,
          "average_return": 1.38,
          "median_excess_return": -0.82,
          "excess_observations": 204,
          "p10": -6.5,
          "p90": 10.49
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 79,
          "positive_rate": 57.0,
          "median_return": 1.13,
          "average_return": 2.34,
          "median_excess_return": -2.37,
          "excess_observations": 79,
          "p10": -12.54,
          "p90": 21.01
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 48,
          "positive_rate": 56.2,
          "median_return": 2.31,
          "average_return": 5.57,
          "median_excess_return": -7.5,
          "excess_observations": 48,
          "p10": -13.18,
          "p90": 21.82
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 40.87,
      "expected_move": 4.15059897,
      "invalidation_distance": 0.7940206732043545,
      "collision": true,
      "flags": [
        "The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move.",
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 41/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 32,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 5.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 41% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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