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        "label": "10w",
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        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
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              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
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              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
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              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 8.7,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 32.42253015618704,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 13.82,
          "confirmation": 6.569879,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 6.636976597708186,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 13.82; Wave 2 8.70.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 239,
              "date": "2026-01-23",
              "price": 13.82,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 11.721907841552152,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 264,
              "date": "2026-07-24",
              "price": 6.569879,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -52.461078147612156,
              "weeks": 25,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 8.7,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 32.42253015618704,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 13.82,
          "confirmation": 6.569879,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_crest_risk",
    "title": "Hurst crest risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 64,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 239,
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "price": 13.82,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 68.33130328867234,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 264,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 6.569879,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -52.461078147612156,
        "weeks": 25,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 8.7,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 32.42253015618704,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 3.379032807157817,
      "fair_value_gap": 6.447175038798143,
      "market_activity": 11.478081,
      "market_dynamics": 1.04076,
      "relative_strength": -1.428273,
      "roc30": -18.843283582089565,
      "hurst_alignment": 25,
      "hurst_risk": 75
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 3.4% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 7.142857142857144
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 23.794427258679118
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -14.622178606476941
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 3.0805687203791448
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 15.46,
      "low_52": 6.569879,
      "position_52": 23.960540019646515,
      "drawdown": -43.72574385510997
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 38.463455549118805,
      "average_weekly_range": 5.956531287822542,
      "active_drawdown": -37.04775687409552
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 264,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 6.569879,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -52.461078147612156,
        "weeks": 25,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 239,
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "price": 13.82,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 68.33130328867234,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 239,
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "price": 13.82,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 68.33130328867234,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 8.415633,
      "fair_value": 8.173068,
      "trend_gap": 3.379032807157817,
      "fair_value_gap": 6.447175038798143
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 264,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 6.569879,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -52.461078147612156,
        "weeks": 25,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 8.7,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 32.42253015618704,
        "weeks": 11,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 32.42253015618704,
      "weeks": 11,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "3.4% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-1.4",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+11.5",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.0",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-18.8",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 26
    },
    "volume_ratio": 120.11163083247722,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 33,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 32,
          "positive_rate": 46.9,
          "median_return": -0.29,
          "bar_width": 1.45,
          "average_return": 3.73,
          "best_return": 40.83,
          "worst_return": -11.03
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 31,
          "positive_rate": 48.4,
          "median_return": -0.29,
          "bar_width": 1.45,
          "average_return": 9.61,
          "best_return": 63.55,
          "worst_return": -13.97
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 31,
          "positive_rate": 71.0,
          "median_return": 17.01,
          "bar_width": 85.05000000000001,
          "average_return": 15.82,
          "best_return": 61.11,
          "worst_return": -15.0
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 6.57, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 13.82; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 9,
      "constructive_percent": 38,
      "rising_cycle_count": 4,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 17,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 191,
          "positive_rate": 47.6,
          "median_return": -0.43,
          "average_return": 1.17,
          "median_excess_return": -1.03,
          "excess_observations": 191,
          "p10": -11.34,
          "p90": 14.99
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 103,
          "positive_rate": 47.6,
          "median_return": -0.63,
          "average_return": 1.51,
          "median_excess_return": -2.41,
          "excess_observations": 103,
          "p10": -26.04,
          "p90": 22.94
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 91,
          "positive_rate": 48.4,
          "median_return": -2.57,
          "average_return": 3.23,
          "median_excess_return": -5.77,
          "excess_observations": 91,
          "p10": -22.21,
          "p90": 36.09
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "000001.SS",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 58.8505747126437,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 11,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 3.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 24% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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