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0.968792672611526 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.934677989024924 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.7819292927692045 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.7430330268173753 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.7904546171006459 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.7107626319360584 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.5964776950472378 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.6111663822184944 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.91; Wave 2 34.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 37.06; Wave 3 38.59.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.45\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 27.913353, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.072447900234476, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 37.064423, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.783843632113985, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.595, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.928089008626861, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 34.481961, "confirmation": 38.595, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 62, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.91; Wave B 34.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 9.15; C length 4.11.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.45\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 27.913353, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.072447900234476, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 37.064423, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.783843632113985, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.595, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.928089008626861, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 38.595, "confirmation": 34.481961, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 7 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.91; Wave 2 34.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 37.06; Wave 3 39.18.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 37.06; Wave 4 37.69.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 9.15, 4.70, 0.91.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 39.18; Wave 5 38.59.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.51\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 27.913353, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.66798122982927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 37.064423, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.783843632113985, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 39.18217, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.630921396842833, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 37.686099, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.8182443698243373, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.595, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.411767267288663, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 37.686099, "confirmation": 38.595, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 85 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.91; Wave 2 34.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 37.06; Wave 3 38.59.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.45\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 27.913353, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.072447900234476, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 37.064423, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.783843632113985, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.595, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.928089008626861, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 34.481961, "confirmation": 38.595, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 27.91; Wave 2 34.48.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 37.06; Wave 3 39.18.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 37.06; Wave 4 37.69.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 9.15, 4.70, 0.91.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 39.18; Wave 5 38.59.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.51\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 8w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 27.913353, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.66798122982927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 37.064423, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.783843632113985, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 116, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 39.18217, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.630921396842833, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 120, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 37.686099, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.8182443698243373, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.595, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.411767267288663, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 37.686099, "confirmation": 38.595, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 85 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 77, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 58, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 27.913353, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.072447900234476, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 37.064423, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 32.783843632113985, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.595, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.928089008626861, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.379844575856827, "fair_value_gap": 16.772871636282467, "market_activity": 20.238805, "market_dynamics": 0.091779, "relative_strength": -2.570211, "roc30": 6.021263313607429, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 3.4% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.8236899699354955 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.5191392302349347 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 4.129504457684398 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 17.089499973681786 } ], "range": { "high_52": 39.249921, "low_52": 33.159798, "position_52": 89.246177786557, "drawdown": -1.668591893471586 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 12.113196892508265, "average_weekly_range": 2.2548082143782993, "active_drawdown": -1.49856427043219 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 37.333196, "fair_value": 33.051341, "trend_gap": 3.379844575856827, "fair_value_gap": 16.772871636282467 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 34.481961, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.9674954875191215, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 125, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 38.595, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.928089008626861, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 11.928089008626861, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-2.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+20.2", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+6.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 126, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 65.60646072260614, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 44, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 65.1, "median_return": 0.9, "bar_width": 4.5, "average_return": 0.47, "best_return": 3.41, "worst_return": -6.69 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 82.9, "median_return": 3.87, "bar_width": 19.35, "average_return": 3.23, "best_return": 8.95, "worst_return": -6.04 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 92.9, "median_return": 6.24, "bar_width": 31.200000000000003, "average_return": 6.14, "best_return": 12.45, "worst_return": -1.19 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 38.59, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 34.48; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "bearish", "options_conviction": 47.59, "expected_move": 1.86223638, "invalidation_distance": 10.65692188107268, "collision": false, "flags": [ "Stored options pressure is bearish with 48/100 conviction." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 38, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 9, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 57, "explanation": "Price is 89% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", 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