{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "XUCA",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Positioning Screened UCITS ETF 1D",
    "exchange": "GER"
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  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
  "latest_close": 28.940001,
  "latest_open": 28.115,
  "latest_high": 28.950001,
  "latest_low": 28.115,
  "bar_count": 32,
  "analysis_bar_count": 32,
  "reversal_percent": 5.0,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "date": "2026-01-02",
      "price": 25.79814,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 31,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 28.940001,
      "kind": "high",
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      "weeks": 31,
      "confirmed": false
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    "trend_bias": "bearish",
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    "slope": -1.206043209299783,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 40,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 31,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0,
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        "date": "2026-01-23",
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        "date": "2026-03-13",
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-04-03",
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        "date": "2026-04-10",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 5.163589420829225
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  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
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    "risk_score": 50,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
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    "nearest_crest_window": 10,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
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          13
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          "end": 12
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "crossed up",
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          "displacement": 6,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "available": true,
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          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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            "value": 0.1457455940144761
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.8821589649630729
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 0.731523291870921
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 0.7289123621189738
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 0.8298305015205792
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 0.7265582156615914
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 0.5934222325352693
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": 0.474447175720497
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": 0.7536972244536111
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 8.9% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 2.24342342342342
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 7.162522030988176
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 14.32358757044291
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 30.62294,
      "low_52": 24.12151,
      "position_52": 74.11432561759487,
      "drawdown": -5.495680689052068
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 12.213004696168857,
      "average_weekly_range": 1.3454699320050894,
      "active_drawdown": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "price": 25.79814,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
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        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "price": 25.79814,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 26.583675,
      "fair_value": 26.555942,
      "trend_gap": 8.863808333497905,
      "fair_value_gap": 8.977497390226251
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    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "price": 25.79814,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 31,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 28.940001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 12.178633808483863,
        "weeks": 31,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 12.178633808483863,
      "weeks": 31,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "8.9% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+56.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.5",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+9.3",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 1,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 67,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 25,
      "history_score": 12,
      "indicator_coverage": 39,
      "structure_score": 17,
      "weekly_observations": 32,
      "confirmed_pivots": 1
    },
    "volume_ratio": null,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 22,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 45,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 5,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 500,
          "positive_rate": 54.0,
          "median_return": 0.4,
          "average_return": 0.45,
          "median_excess_return": -0.27,
          "excess_observations": 500,
          "p10": -3.84,
          "p90": 4.89
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 175,
          "positive_rate": 60.6,
          "median_return": 1.84,
          "average_return": 1.54,
          "median_excess_return": 0.23,
          "excess_observations": 175,
          "p10": -6.45,
          "p90": 9.17
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 92,
          "positive_rate": 68.5,
          "median_return": 2.89,
          "average_return": 3.93,
          "median_excess_return": -0.91,
          "excess_observations": 92,
          "p10": -7.88,
          "p90": 15.96
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 37,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 22,
          "explanation": "Price is 8.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 74% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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