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}, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 2.256475475088101 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.40526629534942 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.443695732845661 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.238370216719208 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.8908091352182512 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.2603079194294704 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9465728592752287 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.662972745184665 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.4342865467922764 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 323.05; Wave 2 566.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 638.30; Wave 3 1660.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 638.30; Wave 4 1108.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 23% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.47\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 50% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 37, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 323.052917, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.29857263023446, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 67, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 638.304749, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 97.58519902174419, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 566.043884, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.320746886688127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 1660.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 193.26348131693615, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1108.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.25301204819277, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 566.043884, "confirmation": 1660.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 76 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 566.04; Wave 2 1108.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 50% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 566.043884, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.320746886688127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 1660.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 193.26348131693615, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1108.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.25301204819277, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 566.043884, "confirmation": 1660.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 12 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1074.27; Wave 2 1108.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 70% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1074.268883, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.285007048192774, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1188.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.58683899345524, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1108.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.734006734006734, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1074.268883, "confirmation": 1188.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 12 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 17.4788534879676, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1309.64; Wave 2 1108.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 103, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 1309.637151, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1074.268883, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.97202132058332, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1108.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.1399138087107787, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1309.637151, "confirmation": 1074.268883, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 17.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 10.92428342997975, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 323.05; Wave 2 566.04.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 638.30; Wave 3 1660.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 638.30; Wave 4 1108.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 23% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.47\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 50% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 37, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 323.052917, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.29857263023446, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 67, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 638.304749, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 97.58519902174419, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 566.043884, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.320746886688127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 1660.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 193.26348131693615, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1108.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.25301204819277, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 566.043884, "confirmation": 1660.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 76 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 10.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 7.646998400985825, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 1074.27; Wave 2 1108.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 70% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 104, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 1074.268883, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.285007048192774, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 1188.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.58683899345524, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1108.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.734006734006734, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 1074.268883, "confirmation": 1188.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 12 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 7.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave4_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 88, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 37, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 323.052917, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -28.29857263023446, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 67, "date": "2025-10-31", "price": 638.304749, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 97.58519902174419, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 70, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 566.043884, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.320746886688127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 1660.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 193.26348131693615, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1108.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.25301204819277, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 6.763111965374886, "fair_value_gap": 79.91541510583886, "market_activity": 21.235415, "market_dynamics": -0.128251, "relative_strength": 15.322928, "roc30": 64.0435146327748, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 4 trough. Price is 6.8% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -15.396413491021981 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -0.8501118568232662 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 42.05128205128205 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 157.86407103237275 } ], "range": { "high_52": 1667.5, "low_52": 421.920157, "position_52": 55.081161344708754, "drawdown": -33.553223388305845 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 59.58432773690634, "average_weekly_range": 12.019021443294918, "active_drawdown": -33.25301204819277 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 70, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 566.043884, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.320746886688127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 1660.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 193.26348131693615, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 70, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 566.043884, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.320746886688127, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 1037.811637, "fair_value": 615.844951, "trend_gap": 6.763111965374886, "fair_value_gap": 79.91541510583886 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 100, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 1660.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 193.26348131693615, "weeks": 30, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 1108.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.25301204819277, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -33.25301204819277, "weeks": 7, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+15.3", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+21.2", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+64.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 108, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 222.31686394868655, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 15, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 92.9, "median_return": 16.37, "bar_width": 81.85000000000001, "average_return": 16.15, "best_return": 27.98, "worst_return": -4.9 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 14, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 41.4, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 49.32, "best_return": 102.76, "worst_return": 11.9 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 7, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 124.65, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 126.63, "best_return": 183.88, "worst_return": 93.9 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 4 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 1660.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 566.04; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 16, "constructive_percent": 67, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 25, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 208, "positive_rate": 50.5, "median_return": 0.18, "average_return": -0.21, "median_excess_return": 0.1, "excess_observations": 208, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 6.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 51.9, "median_return": 0.92, "average_return": 0.39, "median_excess_return": 0.37, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -10.04, "p90": 13.22 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 87, "positive_rate": 65.5, "median_return": 2.0, "average_return": 3.43, "median_excess_return": 0.82, "excess_observations": 87, "p10": -6.26, "p90": 18.79 } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 48.91300685920577, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 29, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 1, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 6, "explanation": "Price is 6.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 55% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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