{ "ticker": { "symbol": "PBMR", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 20 ETF - MARCH", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-31", "latest_close": 32.22, "latest_open": 32.1, "latest_high": 32.27, "latest_low": 31.98, "bar_count": 127, "analysis_bar_count": 127, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-31", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2024-03-01", "price": 25.14, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.22, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.162291169451063, "weeks": 126, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { 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1.2048426472091553 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.1611660441333465 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.1094797194005568 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.0727376513239273 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.9988713884476812 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.9688557369817619 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.9754923102128396 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.9344320518198725 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.8925140709520527 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.8875320010595202 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": null, "alternates": [], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 65, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": null, "labels": [], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.952082260183559, "fair_value_gap": 13.065413921531759, "market_activity": 45.538962, "market_dynamics": 0.254463, "relative_strength": -3.553839, "roc30": 5.708661417322829, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 3.0% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.43265214518159 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.91364858453266 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 5.004839608529439 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 11.192785928004218 } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.99, "low_52": 29.1072, "position_52": 80.16895024209326, "drawdown": -2.334040618369212 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 4.9925735442132755, "average_weekly_range": 0.8565236770411719, "active_drawdown": -0.031026993484325197 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 31.296113, "fair_value": 28.496778, "trend_gap": 2.952082260183559, "fair_value_gap": 13.065413921531759 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-03-01", "price": 25.14, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 126, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 32.22, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.162291169451063, "weeks": 126, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 28.162291169451063, "weeks": 126, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+45.5", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 66, "history_score": 49, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 127, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 59.92875386303361, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 52, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 51, "positive_rate": 84.3, "median_return": 0.68, "bar_width": 3.4000000000000004, "average_return": 0.66, "best_return": 2.77, "worst_return": -2.98 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 92.9, "median_return": 2.64, "bar_width": 13.200000000000001, "average_return": 2.59, "best_return": 5.01, "worst_return": -1.93 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 5.27, "bar_width": 26.349999999999998, "average_return": 5.01, "best_return": 7.18, "worst_return": 0.51 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "observing", "label": "Observing", "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.", "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.", "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.", "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": null, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 29, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 3, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 21, "explanation": "Price is 80% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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