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        "label": "10w",
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  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3",
      "degree": "tactical",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave3",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 74,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 357.90; Wave 2 353.03.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 329.55; Wave 3 290.74.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.20\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 261,
          "date": "2026-07-03",
          "price": 357.9,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 21.20280197714516,
          "weeks": 7,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 265,
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "price": 329.545934,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -7.922343112601283,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 266,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 353.033875,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 7.127364830421497,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 290.74,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -17.645296786321147,
          "weeks": 9,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "3"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 353.033875,
      "confirmation": 290.74,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 79
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-abc",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 357.90; Wave B 353.03.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 28.35; C length 62.29.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 2.20\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
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            "label": "5"
          },
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            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
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            "move_percent": 7.127364830421497,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 290.74,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -17.645296786321147,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 290.74,
        "confirmation": 353.033875,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 21
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 11.479913154395819,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 7.174945721497386,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 5.02246200504817,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 357.90; Wave 2 353.03.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 329.55; Wave 3 290.74.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.20\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-07-03",
              "price": 357.9,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 21.20280197714516,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 329.545934,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.922343112601283,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 353.033875,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.127364830421497,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 290.74,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -17.645296786321147,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 353.033875,
          "confirmation": 290.74,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 79
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 20,
      "changes": 5,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave3_continuation",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "tactical-bearish-wave3",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 357.9,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 21.20280197714516,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 329.545934,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.922343112601283,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 353.033875,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 7.127364830421497,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 290.74,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -17.645296786321147,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "3"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -10.082988261775446,
      "fair_value_gap": -16.610450999299722,
      "market_activity": -23.043286,
      "market_dynamics": -0.726517,
      "relative_strength": -22.278178,
      "roc30": -13.55904100198778,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 10.1% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -5.830148344885664
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -15.31022429362074
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -13.12599052476288
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -20.955939091225098
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 391.787746,
      "low_52": 277.15,
      "position_52": 11.854734129193385,
      "drawdown": -25.791451374285714
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    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 25.321657163244705,
      "average_weekly_range": 5.452953467290888,
      "active_drawdown": -29.87039008952686
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    "levels": {
      "support": null,
      "resistance": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 357.9,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 21.20280197714516,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 357.9,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 21.20280197714516,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true
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      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 323.342596,
      "fair_value": 348.652803,
      "trend_gap": -10.082988261775446,
      "fair_value_gap": -16.610450999299722
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    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 357.9,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 21.20280197714516,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 290.74,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -18.765018161497615,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": false
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      "move_percent": -18.765018161497615,
      "weeks": 14,
      "status": "Forming"
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    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "10.1% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-22.3",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-23.0",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.7",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-13.6",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 7,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 25
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    "volume_ratio": 128.6773723589088,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 77,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 76,
          "positive_rate": 69.7,
          "median_return": 1.56,
          "bar_width": 7.800000000000001,
          "average_return": 2.43,
          "best_return": 16.15,
          "worst_return": -14.81
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 75,
          "positive_rate": 82.7,
          "median_return": 7.37,
          "bar_width": 36.85,
          "average_return": 7.9,
          "best_return": 29.38,
          "worst_return": -10.26
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 64,
          "positive_rate": 68.8,
          "median_return": 5.85,
          "bar_width": 29.25,
          "average_return": 6.56,
          "best_return": 33.41,
          "worst_return": -16.75
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 290.74, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 353.03; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 11,
      "constructive_percent": 46,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 4,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 487,
          "positive_rate": 55.0,
          "median_return": 1.19,
          "average_return": 1.91,
          "median_excess_return": -0.09,
          "excess_observations": 487,
          "p10": -12.26,
          "p90": 16.25
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 190,
          "positive_rate": 55.3,
          "median_return": 2.7,
          "average_return": 3.93,
          "median_excess_return": -2.11,
          "excess_observations": 190,
          "p10": -16.8,
          "p90": 30.61
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 108,
          "positive_rate": 57.4,
          "median_return": 4.13,
          "average_return": 5.13,
          "median_excess_return": -4.99,
          "excess_observations": 108,
          "p10": -22.41,
          "p90": 34.86
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-11-17",
      "earnings_weeks": 6,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "mixed",
      "options_conviction": 14.88,
      "expected_move": 2.50107287,
      "invalidation_distance": 21.42597337827613,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 34,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 10.1% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 12% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 80,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 6 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.",
        "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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