{ "ticker": { "symbol": "3437", "name": "Bosera China Reform Hong Kong Central-SOEs High Dividend Yield Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 9.785, "latest_open": 9.97, "latest_high": 10.0, "latest_low": 9.67, "bar_count": 108, "analysis_bar_count": 108, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 6, "date": "2024-08-30", "price": 8.093767, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 8, "date": "2024-09-13", "price": 7.323547, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.516211672512938, "weeks": 2, 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"2026-06-19", "value": -0.08814489847998128 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.4389241479415187 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.7043765011372843 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.8822541225613503 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.9151642627314382 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.7266079526477828 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.526403131467929 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.4468536841402175 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.26; Wave 2 9.79.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 9.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.398102888156098, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.645056726093986, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8611955420465965, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.255, "confirmation": 9.87, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.94; Wave B 9.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.68; C length 0.08.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.05\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 10.939471, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 43.359368601181274, "weeks": 48, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 9.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.398102888156098, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.645056726093986, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8611955420465965, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 9.785, "confirmation": 9.87, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.94; Wave 2 10.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.49; Wave 3 9.26.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.49; Wave 4 9.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 0.45, 1.60, 0.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 9.26; Wave 5 9.79.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 82% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.57\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 10.939471, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.026227300491362, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 10.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.108708730065641, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 10.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.5271687321258267, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 9.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.779005524861866, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.645056726093986, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8611955420465965, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 9.87, "confirmation": 9.785, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.26; Wave 2 9.79.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 9.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.398102888156098, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.645056726093986, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8611955420465965, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.255, "confirmation": 9.87, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.94; Wave 2 10.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.49; Wave 3 9.26.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.49; Wave 4 9.87.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 0.45, 1.60, 0.08.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 9.26; Wave 5 9.79.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 82% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 3.57\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 3w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 86, "date": "2026-03-13", "price": 10.939471, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.026227300491362, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 89, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 10.49, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.108708730065641, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 10.86, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.5271687321258267, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 9.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.779005524861866, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.645056726093986, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8611955420465965, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 9.87, "confirmation": 9.785, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence", "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 64, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 9.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.398102888156098, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.645056726093986, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8611955420465965, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -4.387364357817751, "fair_value_gap": 8.505488536952358, "market_activity": -12.981005, "market_dynamics": -0.628932, "relative_strength": -1.624934, "roc30": 0.8730544824800041, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 4.4% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.989270386266092 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -8.294283036551075 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -3.6465046772556757 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 3.687689500246539 } ], "range": { "high_52": 11.113728, "low_52": 8.993601, "position_52": 37.32790535661307, "drawdown": -11.955736185013704 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.159258595352714, "average_weekly_range": 3.2069682327434514, "active_drawdown": -10.553261670514043 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 9.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.398102888156098, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.645056726093986, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 9.255, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.398102888156098, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 10.234003, "fair_value": 9.017977, "trend_gap": -4.387364357817751, "fair_value_gap": 8.505488536952358 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.87, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.645056726093986, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 107, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 9.785, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.8611955420465965, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -0.8611955420465965, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "4.4% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-13.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 108, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 102.51289390921983, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 9.87, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 9.26; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 132, "positive_rate": 53.8, "median_return": 1.17, "average_return": 1.96, "median_excess_return": 0.44, "excess_observations": 132, "p10": -6.66, "p90": 11.72 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 79, "positive_rate": 59.5, "median_return": 2.85, "average_return": 5.03, "median_excess_return": 0.52, "excess_observations": 79, "p10": -6.7, "p90": 18.63 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 58, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.42, "average_return": 3.01, "median_excess_return": 1.27, "excess_observations": 58, "p10": -14.8, "p90": 28.21 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 5.416453755748588, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 7, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.4% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 37% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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