{ "ticker": { "symbol": "1623", "name": "TA TUN ELECTRIC WIRE CABLE CO L", "exchange": "TAI" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 209.0, "latest_open": 209.0, "latest_high": 214.5, "latest_low": 206.0, "bar_count": 114, "analysis_bar_count": 114, "reversal_percent": 7.161195160842012, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 44, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 163.981934, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.982143842393434, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 85, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 326.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 99.04631323594464, "weeks": 41, 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"date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.1820452483184192 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -0.2909194387110843 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 243.50; Wave 2 226.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 210.00; Wave 3 208.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 210.00; Wave 4 209.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.54\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 3% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 243.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.46325167037862, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 210.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.757700205338809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 226.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.857142857142857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.947019867549669, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 209.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.23980815347721823, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 226.5, "confirmation": 208.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 64 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 226.50; Wave 2 209.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 3% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 226.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.857142857142857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.947019867549669, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 209.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.23980815347721823, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 226.5, "confirmation": 208.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 10 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 243.50; Wave B 226.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 33.50; C length 17.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.52\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 243.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.46325167037862, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 210.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.757700205338809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 226.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.857142857142857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 209.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.72626931567329, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 209.0, "confirmation": 226.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 26 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 11.45791225734722, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 177.50; Wave 2 209.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 54% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 177.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -20.64556260961614, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 246.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 38.59154929577465, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 209.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.040650406504065, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 177.5, "confirmation": 246.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.161195160842012, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 243.50; Wave 2 226.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 210.00; Wave 3 208.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 210.00; Wave 4 209.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.54\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 3% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 243.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.46325167037862, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 210.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.757700205338809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 226.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.857142857142857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.947019867549669, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 209.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.23980815347721823, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 226.5, "confirmation": 208.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 64 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.012836612589408, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 243.50; Wave B 226.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 33.50; C length 17.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.52\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 243.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.46325167037862, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 210.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.757700205338809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 226.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.857142857142857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 209.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.72626931567329, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 209.0, "confirmation": 226.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 26 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 102, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 243.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.46325167037862, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 210.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.757700205338809, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 226.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.857142857142857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.947019867549669, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 209.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.23980815347721823, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -4.964865510779337, "fair_value_gap": -1.7523193080836077, "market_activity": -9.50852, "market_dynamics": -0.76041, "relative_strength": -33.529382, "roc30": -19.36727835112272, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 5.0% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -3.686635944700461 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -8.932461873638344 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -2.591348831015559 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 1.4957274815047383 } ], "range": { "high_52": 326.399994, "low_52": 174.5, "position_52": 22.712311627872744, "drawdown": -35.968136077845635 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 50.55750854876324, "average_weekly_range": 7.152146818585046, "active_drawdown": -35.968136077845635 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.947019867549669, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 226.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.857142857142857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 226.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.857142857142857, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 219.918666, "fair_value": 212.727668, "trend_gap": -4.964865510779337, "fair_value_gap": -1.7523193080836077 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 112, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 208.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.947019867549669, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 209.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.23980815347721823, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 0.23980815347721823, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "5.0% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-33.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-9.5", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-19.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 114, "confirmed_pivots": 12 }, "volume_ratio": 28.642143219951222, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 11, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 6.58, "bar_width": 32.9, "average_return": 9.08, "best_return": 35.54, "worst_return": -14.61 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 12.95, "bar_width": 64.75, "average_return": 13.89, "best_return": 24.79, "worst_return": 3.58 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 208.50, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 226.50; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 15, "constructive_percent": 62, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 411, "positive_rate": 56.7, "median_return": 1.31, "average_return": 1.92, "median_excess_return": -0.46, "excess_observations": 411, "p10": -9.13, "p90": 14.42 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 176, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 4.27, "average_return": 9.34, "median_excess_return": -1.87, "excess_observations": 176, "p10": -17.32, "p90": 38.68 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 108, "positive_rate": 63.0, "median_return": 6.7, "average_return": 17.33, "median_excess_return": 1.41, "excess_observations": 108, "p10": -20.02, "p90": 66.78 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 8.373205741626794, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 32, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.0% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 23% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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