{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7757", "name": "Lebledor F&B Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 91.199997, "latest_open": 89.099998, "latest_high": 93.0, "latest_low": 89.099998, "bar_count": 110, "analysis_bar_count": 110, "reversal_percent": 5.2719473776676224, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 1, "date": "2024-07-05", "price": 206.308762, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 25, "date": "2024-12-20", "price": 120.456284, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -41.61358789017405, "weeks": 24, "confirmed": true 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"date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.1943639178423457 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -1.278941236003441 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.2626020907368618 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -1.1106908205105783 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 149.24; Wave 2 102.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 96.24; Wave 3 91.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.22\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2025-09-26", "price": 149.24321, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.291390539813898, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 96.240944, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.5140217099324, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 102.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.763291931134841, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 91.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.240878832116792, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 102.75, "confirmation": 91.199997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 26 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 149.24; Wave B 102.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 53.00; C length 11.55.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.22\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2025-09-26", "price": 149.24321, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.291390539813898, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 96.240944, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.5140217099324, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 102.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.763291931134841, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 91.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.240878832116792, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 91.199997, "confirmation": 102.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 16 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 151.12; Wave 2 149.24.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 131.41; Wave 3 91.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 90% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.94\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 39, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 151.117874, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 48, "date": "2025-06-06", "price": 131.40686, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.043469629542303, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 64, "date": "2025-09-26", "price": 149.24321, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.573378132618048, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 91.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -38.891694302206446, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 149.24321, "confirmation": 91.199997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 59 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.435115804268197, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 151.12; Wave 2 149.24.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 131.41; Wave 3 91.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 90% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.94\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 39, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 151.117874, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 48, "date": "2025-06-06", "price": 131.40686, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.043469629542303, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 64, "date": "2025-09-26", "price": 149.24321, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.573378132618048, "weeks": 16, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 91.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -38.891694302206446, "weeks": 45, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 149.24321, "confirmation": 91.199997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 59 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.2719473776676224, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 149.24; Wave 2 102.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 96.24; Wave 3 91.20.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.22\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2025-09-26", "price": 149.24321, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.291390539813898, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 96.240944, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.5140217099324, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 102.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.763291931134841, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 91.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.240878832116792, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 102.75, "confirmation": 91.199997, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 26 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.6903631643673354, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 67, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 64, "date": "2025-09-26", "price": 149.24321, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.291390539813898, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 96.240944, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -35.5140217099324, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 102.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.763291931134841, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 91.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.240878832116792, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -7.517422242760385, "fair_value_gap": -29.77279519507914, "market_activity": -42.355269, "market_dynamics": -0.63461, "relative_strength": -43.060625, "roc30": -13.58693181949004, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 7.5% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.5452562882853748 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -5.2378403520231505 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -11.640691160487952 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -38.508567324480516 } ], "range": { "high_52": 157.147047, "low_52": 86.699997, "position_52": 6.387776351174393, "drawdown": -41.965185639154896 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 16.112210918908737, "average_weekly_range": 3.8279097003328535, "active_drawdown": -55.794414102489746 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 102.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.763291931134841, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 98.613165, "fair_value": 129.864199, "trend_gap": -7.517422242760385, "fair_value_gap": -29.77279519507914 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 102.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.763291931134841, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 91.199997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.240878832116792, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -11.240878832116792, "weeks": 10, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "7.5% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-43.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-42.4", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.6", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-13.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 6, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 42, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 110, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 82.47829390235047, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 18.9, "median_return": -2.83, "bar_width": 14.15, "average_return": -2.87, "best_return": 5.98, "worst_return": -11.52 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 7.1, "median_return": -7.83, "bar_width": 39.15, "average_return": -7.44, "best_return": 1.1, "worst_return": -13.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -14.44, "bar_width": 72.2, "average_return": -14.45, "best_return": -8.68, "worst_return": -21.19 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 91.20, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 102.75; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 16, "constructive_percent": 67, "rising_cycle_count": 15, "rising_cycle_percent": 62, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 544, "positive_rate": 51.1, "median_return": 0.28, "average_return": 0.59, "median_excess_return": -2.16, "excess_observations": 544, "p10": -8.72, "p90": 9.64 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 204, "positive_rate": 52.9, "median_return": 0.95, "average_return": 1.77, "median_excess_return": -6.18, "excess_observations": 204, "p10": -16.03, "p90": 17.76 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 121, "positive_rate": 52.1, "median_return": 0.75, "average_return": 6.86, "median_excess_return": -8.97, "excess_observations": 121, "p10": -21.25, "p90": 30.25 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 12.664477390278867, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 20, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 7.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 6% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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