{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7262", "name": "CSOP Leveraged and Inverse Series - CSOP Nikkei 225 Daily (2x) Leveraged Product", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 181.949997, "latest_open": 169.199997, "latest_high": 186.0, "latest_low": 168.300003, "bar_count": 114, "analysis_bar_count": 114, "reversal_percent": 11.69967537390675, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 158.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 121.550003, "kind": "low", 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"2025-11-28", "value": 2.123531658760154 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 2.070432109822931 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 1.7266010074943419 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 1.462423390960284 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 1.3453603816487696 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 1.291540829745121 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 1.330368665520721 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 1.5460746457524244 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 1.6027150244568347 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 1.5909648721752434 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 1.5961615028997675 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.923995514949824 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 2.0142886225710286 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 2.0874083452861614 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.7520359969411403 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.1771021561921902 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.827928521661023 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.5208519342173901 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.35320611671619545 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.6539547020455354 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.0361665340170418 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.2901656574753688 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.3294471755989195 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.6910568054643638 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.7269334456912688 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.7591490427688932 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.8829271439893847 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.9342952566405325 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.8919816684752884 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.976551538437994 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.0158914277166686 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.898055444704433 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.6559619631151734 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.1321699424798042 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.8068286791707873 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.588472358948223 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.5875533534950297 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 216.40; Wave 2 181.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 216.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.0337216445811, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 169.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.90387953522771, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 181.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.662720118343193, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 216.399994, "confirmation": 169.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 121.55; Wave B 169.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 94.85; C length 12.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.14\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 121.550003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.312300946372236, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 216.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.0337216445811, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 169.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.90387953522771, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 181.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.662720118343193, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 181.949997, "confirmation": 169.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 107.10; Wave 2 121.55.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 158.50; Wave 3 216.40.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 158.50; Wave 4 181.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.85\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 107.099998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.783216397433172, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 158.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.992533109104265, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 121.550003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.312300946372236, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 216.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.0337216445811, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 181.949997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.919592400728067, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 121.550003, "confirmation": 216.399994, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 88 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 18.7194805982508, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 18.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 11.69967537390675, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 216.40; Wave 2 181.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 216.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.0337216445811, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 169.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.90387953522771, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 181.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.662720118343193, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 216.399994, "confirmation": 169.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 11.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.189772761734725, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 90, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 107.10; Wave 2 121.55.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 158.50; Wave 3 216.40.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 158.50; Wave 4 181.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 72% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.85\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 36% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 7w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 107.099998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.783216397433172, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 158.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 47.992533109104265, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 121.550003, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.312300946372236, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 216.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.0337216445811, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 181.949997, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -15.919592400728067, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 121.550003, "confirmation": 216.399994, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 88 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 79, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 216.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.0337216445811, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 169.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.90387953522771, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 181.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.662720118343193, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 13.510645511376326, "fair_value_gap": 75.69390766229098, "market_activity": 16.390666, "market_dynamics": -0.301728, "relative_strength": 31.091092, "roc30": 49.26168499980828, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 13.5% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -7.639595431472083 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 4.418936585365851 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 36.80450902255639 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 109.86159549694102 } ], "range": { "high_52": 221.0, "low_52": 85.400002, "position_52": 71.20206225961743, "drawdown": -17.669684615384618 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 56.996223162522455, "average_weekly_range": 9.955303954560803, "active_drawdown": -15.919592400728067 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 169.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.90387953522771, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 216.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.0337216445811, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 106, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 216.399994, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.0337216445811, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 160.293333, "fair_value": 103.560789, "trend_gap": 13.510645511376326, "fair_value_gap": 75.69390766229098 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 110, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 169.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -21.90387953522771, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 181.949997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.662720118343193, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 7.662720118343193, "weeks": 3, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "13.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+31.1", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+16.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+49.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 74, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 114, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 37.59955766970201, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 22, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 95.5, "median_return": 12.56, "bar_width": 62.800000000000004, "average_return": 13.3, "best_return": 27.68, "worst_return": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 16.72, "bar_width": 83.6, "average_return": 25.64, "best_return": 71.47, "worst_return": 4.13 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 59.04, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 51.09, "best_return": 93.3, "worst_return": 23.15 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 169.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 216.40; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 495, "positive_rate": 51.1, "median_return": 0.21, "average_return": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.19, "excess_observations": 495, "p10": -7.36, "p90": 8.08 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 186, "positive_rate": 55.4, "median_return": 2.14, "average_return": 1.86, "median_excess_return": 0.52, "excess_observations": 186, "p10": -10.55, "p90": 14.09 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 107, "positive_rate": 57.0, "median_return": 1.79, "average_return": 3.17, "median_excess_return": 1.47, "excess_observations": 107, "p10": -21.92, "p90": 25.42 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 18.933771677940722, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 48, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 12, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 58, "explanation": "Price is 13.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 71% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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