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    "risk_score": 75,
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    "crest_alignment": 0,
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        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 11,
        "period_range": [
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        "timing_available": false,
        "timing_note": "No measurable positive repeat",
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      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave5",
      "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 39.57; Wave 2 48.70.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 55.13; Wave 3 79.20.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 55.13; Wave 4 68.66.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 15.55, 30.50, 29.54.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 79.20; Wave 5 98.20.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.96\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 163,
          "date": "2024-08-02",
          "price": 39.572578,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -7.513815465412425,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
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        {
          "index": 194,
          "date": "2025-03-07",
          "price": 55.127392,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 39.30705247456964,
          "weeks": 31,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 198,
          "date": "2025-04-04",
          "price": 48.697441,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -11.663804084909373,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 242,
          "date": "2026-02-06",
          "price": 79.199997,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 62.63687654552526,
          "weeks": 44,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 250,
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "price": 68.657059,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-09-25",
          "price": 98.199997,
          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 25,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
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      ],
      "invalidation": 68.657059,
      "confirmation": 98.199997,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 73
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 76,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 48.70; Wave B 68.66.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 30.50; C length 29.54.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.97\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 198,
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            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 242,
            "date": "2026-02-06",
            "price": 79.199997,
            "kind": "high",
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            "weeks": 44,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
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            "price": 68.657059,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-09-25",
            "price": 98.199997,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 43.02971672585042,
            "weeks": 25,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 98.199997,
        "confirmation": 68.657059,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 48.70; Wave 2 68.66.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 79.20; Wave 3 98.20.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.97\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 198,
            "date": "2025-04-04",
            "price": 48.697441,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -11.663804084909373,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 242,
            "date": "2026-02-06",
            "price": 79.199997,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 62.63687654552526,
            "weeks": 44,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 250,
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "price": 68.657059,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
            "weeks": 8,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-09-25",
            "price": 98.199997,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 43.02971672585042,
            "weeks": 25,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 68.657059,
        "confirmation": 98.199997,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 13
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 10.350940521053218,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 30.19; Wave 2 48.70.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 55.13; Wave 3 79.20.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 55.13; Wave 4 68.66.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 24.94, 30.50, 29.54.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 79.20; Wave 5 98.20.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.22\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 123,
              "date": "2023-10-27",
              "price": 30.185781,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.76452011311261,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 194,
              "date": "2025-03-07",
              "price": 55.127392,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 82.62701899281653,
              "weeks": 71,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 198,
              "date": "2025-04-04",
              "price": 48.697441,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.663804084909373,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 242,
              "date": "2026-02-06",
              "price": 79.199997,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 62.63687654552526,
              "weeks": 44,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 68.657059,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 98.199997,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 43.02971672585042,
              "weeks": 25,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 68.657059,
          "confirmation": 98.199997,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 6.469337825658261,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 39.57; Wave 2 48.70.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 55.13; Wave 3 79.20.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 55.13; Wave 4 68.66.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 15.55, 30.50, 29.54.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 79.20; Wave 5 98.20.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.96\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 8w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 163,
              "date": "2024-08-02",
              "price": 39.572578,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.513815465412425,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 194,
              "date": "2025-03-07",
              "price": 55.127392,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 39.30705247456964,
              "weeks": 31,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 198,
              "date": "2025-04-04",
              "price": 48.697441,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.663804084909373,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 242,
              "date": "2026-02-06",
              "price": 79.199997,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 62.63687654552526,
              "weeks": 44,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 68.657059,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 98.199997,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 43.02971672585042,
              "weeks": 25,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 68.657059,
          "confirmation": 98.199997,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 73
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.528536477960783,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 64.80; Wave 2 68.66.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 79.20; Wave 3 98.20.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 73% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.05\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 220,
              "date": "2025-09-05",
              "price": 64.800003,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.086952173913038,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 242,
              "date": "2026-02-06",
              "price": 79.199997,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 22.222211934156842,
              "weeks": 22,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 68.657059,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 98.199997,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 43.02971672585042,
              "weeks": 25,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 68.657059,
          "confirmation": 98.199997,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave5_risk",
    "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 92,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 163,
        "date": "2024-08-02",
        "price": 39.572578,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.513815465412425,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 194,
        "date": "2025-03-07",
        "price": 55.127392,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 39.30705247456964,
        "weeks": 31,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 198,
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "price": 48.697441,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.663804084909373,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 242,
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "price": 79.199997,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 62.63687654552526,
        "weeks": 44,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 68.657059,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "4"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 98.199997,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 43.02971672585042,
        "weeks": 25,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "5"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 20.40497392717263,
      "fair_value_gap": 72.88148086830448,
      "market_activity": 76.517132,
      "market_dynamics": 1.910211,
      "relative_strength": 19.334296,
      "roc30": 30.411677407237278,
      "hurst_alignment": 25,
      "hurst_risk": 75
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 20.4% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 4.2462846362935665
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 21.384418507183714
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 42.31883623188405
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 47.226388930722145
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 98.400002,
      "low_52": 64.963782,
      "position_52": 99.4018313074863,
      "drawdown": -0.20325710968990066
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 16.305710259442954,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.369872091581194,
      "active_drawdown": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 68.657059,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": null,
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 81.55809,
      "fair_value": 56.801918,
      "trend_gap": 20.40497392717263,
      "fair_value_gap": 72.88148086830448
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 68.657059,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.311790908274899,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 98.199997,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 43.02971672585042,
        "weeks": 25,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 43.02971672585042,
      "weeks": 25,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "20.4% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+19.3",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+76.5",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.9",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+30.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 5,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 22
    },
    "volume_ratio": 174.76307348501095,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 156,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 155,
          "positive_rate": 73.5,
          "median_return": 3.03,
          "bar_width": 15.149999999999999,
          "average_return": 2.54,
          "best_return": 13.01,
          "worst_return": -16.55
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 146,
          "positive_rate": 82.2,
          "median_return": 8.24,
          "bar_width": 41.2,
          "average_return": 7.25,
          "best_return": 31.98,
          "worst_return": -18.23
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 144,
          "positive_rate": 93.1,
          "median_return": 15.54,
          "bar_width": 77.69999999999999,
          "average_return": 15.89,
          "best_return": 39.43,
          "worst_return": -9.82
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 68.66; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 11,
      "constructive_count": 6,
      "constructive_percent": 55,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 18,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 292,
          "positive_rate": 41.8,
          "median_return": -0.1,
          "average_return": -0.78,
          "median_excess_return": -0.55,
          "excess_observations": 292,
          "p10": -6.67,
          "p90": 6.35
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 113,
          "positive_rate": 43.4,
          "median_return": -1.22,
          "average_return": -1.25,
          "median_excess_return": -2.18,
          "excess_observations": 113,
          "p10": -11.52,
          "p90": 11.31
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 65,
          "positive_rate": 50.8,
          "median_return": 0.18,
          "average_return": -1.52,
          "median_excess_return": -3.49,
          "excess_observations": 65,
          "p10": -14.77,
          "p90": 16.66
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^BFX",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 30.084459167549664,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 86,
      "label": "High vulnerability",
      "tone": "high",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 20,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Price is 20.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 98,
          "explanation": "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Price is 20.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.",
        "Price is 99% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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