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        "label": "10w",
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 19.046453000328622,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 19.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 11.904033125205387,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 11.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 8.33282318764377,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_rising_stack",
    "title": "Hurst rising stack",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": null,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.",
      "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.",
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Market Activity is positive.",
      "Market Dynamics supports the setup."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 51.89222617606285,
      "fair_value_gap": 63.566432906189505,
      "market_activity": 63.394879,
      "market_dynamics": 0.526952,
      "relative_strength": 30.659847,
      "roc30": 112.7098225419664,
      "hurst_alignment": 75,
      "hurst_risk": 25
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst rising stack. Price is 51.9% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 43.99350467511379
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      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 22.00825430581867
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      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 116.87039526306134
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 102.05009557858334
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    "range": {
      "high_52": 45.150002,
      "low_52": 19.0,
      "position_52": 96.94071151505075,
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      "annualised_volatility": 89.12339905380654,
      "average_weekly_range": 8.099726821260814,
      "active_drawdown": 0.0
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        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 25.299999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -30.39889850888025,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
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      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
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      "fair_value": 27.114364,
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        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 25.299999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -30.39889850888025,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
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        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 44.349998,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 75.2964417113218,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false
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      "move_percent": 75.2964417113218,
      "weeks": 9,
      "status": "Forming"
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      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "51.9% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+30.7",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+63.4",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.5",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+112.7",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 7,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 24
    },
    "volume_ratio": 690.8646080049667,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 71,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 71,
          "positive_rate": 39.4,
          "median_return": -4.04,
          "bar_width": 20.2,
          "average_return": -0.37,
          "best_return": 43.13,
          "worst_return": -30.4
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 70,
          "positive_rate": 37.1,
          "median_return": -6.87,
          "bar_width": 34.35,
          "average_return": 1.9,
          "best_return": 71.02,
          "worst_return": -31.75
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 63,
          "positive_rate": 46.0,
          "median_return": -1.12,
          "bar_width": 5.6000000000000005,
          "average_return": 6.87,
          "best_return": 77.85,
          "worst_return": -45.12
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      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 16,
      "constructive_percent": 67,
      "rising_cycle_count": 8,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 33,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 769,
          "positive_rate": 56.3,
          "median_return": 1.53,
          "average_return": 3.72,
          "median_excess_return": 0.12,
          "excess_observations": 769,
          "p10": -12.31,
          "p90": 23.35
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 276,
          "positive_rate": 58.3,
          "median_return": 4.49,
          "average_return": 12.56,
          "median_excess_return": 2.17,
          "excess_observations": 276,
          "p10": -16.67,
          "p90": 49.15
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 154,
          "positive_rate": 62.3,
          "median_return": 10.58,
          "average_return": 25.54,
          "median_excess_return": 5.31,
          "excess_observations": 154,
          "p10": -19.23,
          "p90": 82.55
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^TWII",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 43,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 20,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Price is 51.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 13,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 88,
          "explanation": "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 51.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.",
        "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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