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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 63,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 11.83; Wave 2 11.31.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 260,
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "price": 11.827036,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 36.2049570299832,
          "weeks": 21,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 266,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 11.08,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -6.316341642994912,
          "weeks": 6,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 11.31,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 2.075812274368235,
          "weeks": 9,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 11.827036,
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      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 38
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 8.68; Wave B 11.08.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 3.14; C length 0.23.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.07\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 239,
            "date": "2026-01-30",
            "price": 8.683264,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.900207841137979,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 260,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 11.827036,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 36.2049570299832,
            "weeks": 21,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 266,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 11.08,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.316341642994912,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 11.31,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 2.075812274368235,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 11.31,
        "confirmation": 11.08,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 25
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 11.53; Wave 2 11.31.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 94% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 180,
            "date": "2024-12-13",
            "price": 11.534392,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 27.36796540620762,
            "weeks": 18,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 199,
            "date": "2025-04-25",
            "price": 7.918246,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -31.3509892849142,
            "weeks": 19,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 11.31,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 42.83466313120356,
            "weeks": 76,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 11.534392,
        "confirmation": 7.918246,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 38
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 9.411772723048381,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 11.53; Wave 2 11.31.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 94% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 180,
              "date": "2024-12-13",
              "price": 11.534392,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 27.36796540620762,
              "weeks": 18,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 199,
              "date": "2025-04-25",
              "price": 7.918246,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -31.3509892849142,
              "weeks": 19,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 11.31,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 42.83466313120356,
              "weeks": 76,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 11.534392,
          "confirmation": 7.918246,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 38
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.882357951905238,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 11.83; Wave 2 11.31.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 11.827036,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 36.2049570299832,
              "weeks": 21,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 11.08,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.316341642994912,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 11.31,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 2.075812274368235,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 11.827036,
          "confirmation": 11.08,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 38
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.117650566333666,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 10.89; Wave 2 11.31.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 16% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 271,
              "date": "2026-09-11",
              "price": 10.892549,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.45497875955819,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 11.39,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 4.566892469338443,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 11.31,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -0.7023705004389822,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 10.892549,
          "confirmation": 11.39,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "hurst_crest_risk",
    "title": "Hurst crest risk",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 82,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 11.827036,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 36.2049570299832,
        "weeks": 21,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 11.08,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.316341642994912,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 11.31,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 2.075812274368235,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Dynamics is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 5.131475694550956,
      "fair_value_gap": 16.554416484896066,
      "market_activity": 15.373481,
      "market_dynamics": -0.803149,
      "relative_strength": 3.22497,
      "roc30": 27.916852010381298,
      "hurst_alignment": 25,
      "hurst_risk": 75
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 5.1% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 3.832445463408058
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 0.8021390374331537
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 18.429319371727743
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 30.964485696906486
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 11.975867,
      "low_52": 8.523201,
      "position_52": 80.71441025572706,
      "drawdown": -5.560073437689302
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 20.366148483279034,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.134533203729291,
      "active_drawdown": -4.371644763742997
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 11.08,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.316341642994912,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 11.827036,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 36.2049570299832,
        "weeks": 21,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 11.827036,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 36.2049570299832,
        "weeks": 21,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 10.757958,
      "fair_value": 9.703622,
      "trend_gap": 5.131475694550956,
      "fair_value_gap": 16.554416484896066
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 266,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 11.08,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.316341642994912,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 11.31,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 2.075812274368235,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 2.075812274368235,
      "weeks": 9,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "5.1% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+3.2",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+15.4",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.8",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+27.9",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 38
    },
    "volume_ratio": 70.38711528473132,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 24,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 23,
          "positive_rate": 47.8,
          "median_return": -0.57,
          "bar_width": 2.8499999999999996,
          "average_return": -1.07,
          "best_return": 8.99,
          "worst_return": -20.94
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 20,
          "positive_rate": 45.0,
          "median_return": -0.6,
          "bar_width": 3.0,
          "average_return": 1.67,
          "best_return": 33.47,
          "worst_return": -16.16
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 19,
          "positive_rate": 73.7,
          "median_return": 7.19,
          "bar_width": 35.95,
          "average_return": 11.7,
          "best_return": 32.3,
          "worst_return": -7.73
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 11.08, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 11.83; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 13,
      "constructive_percent": 54,
      "rising_cycle_count": 0,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 0,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 704,
          "positive_rate": 49.9,
          "median_return": -0.01,
          "average_return": -0.29,
          "median_excess_return": -1.43,
          "excess_observations": 704,
          "p10": -8.72,
          "p90": 7.72
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 272,
          "positive_rate": 50.4,
          "median_return": 0.03,
          "average_return": -0.14,
          "median_excess_return": -3.44,
          "excess_observations": 272,
          "p10": -14.69,
          "p90": 13.25
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 158,
          "positive_rate": 50.0,
          "median_return": 0.03,
          "average_return": 1.68,
          "median_excess_return": -7.87,
          "excess_observations": 158,
          "p10": -15.98,
          "p90": 20.71
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-11-06",
      "earnings_weeks": 4,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "mixed",
      "options_conviction": 7.83,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 4.571494252873555,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 4 weeks."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 36,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 5.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 23,
          "explanation": "Price is 81% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 4 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2023-10-20",
      "2023-10-27",
      "2023-11-03",
      "2023-11-10",
      "2023-11-17",
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      "2023-12-01",
      "2023-12-08",
      "2023-12-15",
      "2023-12-22",
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      "2024-01-19",
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      "2024-02-02",
      "2024-02-09",
      "2024-02-16",
      "2024-02-23",
      "2024-03-01",
      "2024-03-08",
      "2024-03-15",
      "2024-03-22",
      "2024-03-29",
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      "2024-04-19",
      "2024-04-26",
      "2024-05-03",
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      "2024-05-24",
      "2024-05-31",
      "2024-06-07",
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      "2024-06-21",
      "2024-06-28",
      "2024-07-05",
      "2024-07-12",
      "2024-07-19",
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      "2024-08-02",
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      "2024-10-25",
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      "2024-12-20",
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      "2025-01-03",
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      "2025-02-07",
      "2025-02-14",
      "2025-02-21",
      "2025-02-28",
      "2025-03-07",
      "2025-03-14",
      "2025-03-21",
      "2025-03-28",
      "2025-04-04",
      "2025-04-11",
      "2025-04-18",
      "2025-04-25",
      "2025-05-02",
      "2025-05-09",
      "2025-05-16",
      "2025-05-23",
      "2025-05-30",
      "2025-06-06",
      "2025-06-13",
      "2025-06-20",
      "2025-06-27",
      "2025-07-04",
      "2025-07-11",
      "2025-07-18",
      "2025-07-25",
      "2025-08-01",
      "2025-08-08",
      "2025-08-15",
      "2025-08-22",
      "2025-08-29",
      "2025-09-05",
      "2025-09-12",
      "2025-09-19",
      "2025-09-26",
      "2025-10-03",
      "2025-10-10",
      "2025-10-17",
      "2025-10-24",
      "2025-10-31",
      "2025-11-07",
      "2025-11-14",
      "2025-11-21",
      "2025-11-28",
      "2025-12-05",
      "2025-12-12",
      "2025-12-19",
      "2025-12-26",
      "2026-01-02",
      "2026-01-09",
      "2026-01-16",
      "2026-01-23",
      "2026-01-30",
      "2026-02-06",
      "2026-02-13",
      "2026-02-20",
      "2026-02-27",
      "2026-03-06",
      "2026-03-13",
      "2026-03-20",
      "2026-03-27",
      "2026-04-03",
      "2026-04-10",
      "2026-04-17",
      "2026-04-24",
      "2026-05-01",
      "2026-05-08",
      "2026-05-15",
      "2026-05-22",
      "2026-05-29",
      "2026-06-05",
      "2026-06-12",
      "2026-06-19",
      "2026-06-26",
      "2026-07-03",
      "2026-07-10",
      "2026-07-17",
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