{ "ticker": { "symbol": "DXPJ", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Pacific ex Japan Screened UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "GER" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 10.782, "latest_open": 10.562, "latest_high": 10.782, "latest_low": 10.526, "bar_count": 114, "analysis_bar_count": 114, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 8.75854, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 44, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 7.813478, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.790177358326845, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": 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"2026-04-24", "value": 1.1274218593657666 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.062533410785296 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.0176145907565635 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.9095363935988205 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.8149188294362464 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.7425126400936901 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.5494073095661774 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.4747976086963102 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.43563049801774845 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.37720533429741604 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.38953068585489947 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.488779717054327 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.5900803482826968 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.7256880579648063 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.8435289335965173 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.04509835339119 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.79; Wave 2 9.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.51; Wave 3 10.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 95% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.33\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.791, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.46110695587135, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 10.506, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.302624859564905, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 9.829, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.443936798020175, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.782, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.695798148336548, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 9.829, "confirmation": 10.782, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 68, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.79; Wave B 9.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.71; C length 0.95.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.33\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.791, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.46110695587135, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 10.506, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.302624859564905, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 9.829, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.443936798020175, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.782, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.695798148336548, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 10.782, "confirmation": 9.829, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.37; Wave 2 9.79.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.70; Wave 3 10.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.75\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 9.367482, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.805986747725505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 10.696, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.182231681897003, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.791, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.46110695587135, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.782, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.121540189970377, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 9.791, "confirmation": 10.782, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave3", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.37; Wave 2 9.79.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.70; Wave 3 10.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.75\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-11-21", "price": 9.367482, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -16.805986747725505, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 90, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 10.696, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.182231681897003, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.791, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.46110695587135, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.782, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 10.121540189970377, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 9.791, "confirmation": 10.782, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.79; Wave 2 9.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.51; Wave 3 10.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 95% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.33\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.791, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.46110695587135, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 10.506, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.302624859564905, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 9.829, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.443936798020175, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.782, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.695798148336548, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 9.829, "confirmation": 10.782, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.79; Wave 2 9.83.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.51; Wave 3 10.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 95% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.33\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.791, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.46110695587135, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 10.506, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.302624859564905, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 9.829, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.443936798020175, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.782, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.695798148336548, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 9.829, "confirmation": 10.782, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 94, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 9.791, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.46110695587135, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 10.506, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.302624859564905, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 9.829, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.443936798020175, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.782, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.695798148336548, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.", "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.", "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.637207811274849, "fair_value_gap": 14.754230963590697, "market_activity": 59.628638, "market_dynamics": 0.524768, "relative_strength": -0.095388, "roc30": 10.79890615110682, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 5.6% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 4.883268482490279 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.231309779426113 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 6.505877233751351 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 14.794231712295126 } ], "range": { "high_52": 11.259803, "low_52": 9.272871, "position_52": 75.95272510584158, "drawdown": -4.243440138339896 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.966184721505174, "average_weekly_range": 1.49879073426373, "active_drawdown": -4.243440138339896 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 9.829, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.443936798020175, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 72, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 11.259803, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.10743845442452, "weeks": 28, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 9.829, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.443936798020175, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 10.206631, "fair_value": 9.395732, "trend_gap": 5.637207811274849, "fair_value_gap": 14.754230963590697 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 9.829, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.443936798020175, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.782, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.695798148336548, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 9.695798148336548, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+59.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+10.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 114, "confirmed_pivots": 8 }, "volume_ratio": 73.44082887950182, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 27, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 51.9, "median_return": 0.11, "bar_width": 0.55, "average_return": 0.27, "best_return": 18.81, "worst_return": -16.81 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 59.3, "median_return": 1.09, "bar_width": 5.45, "average_return": 0.38, "best_return": 7.41, "worst_return": -11.07 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 94.7, "median_return": 5.31, "bar_width": 26.549999999999997, "average_return": 5.74, "best_return": 12.51, "worst_return": -10.1 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 10.78, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 9.83; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 45, "rising_cycle_count": 1, "rising_cycle_percent": 5, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 500, "positive_rate": 54.0, "median_return": 0.4, "average_return": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.27, "excess_observations": 500, "p10": -3.84, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.6, "median_return": 1.84, "average_return": 1.54, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -6.45, "p90": 9.17 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 68.5, "median_return": 2.89, "average_return": 3.93, "median_excess_return": -0.91, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -7.88, "p90": 15.96 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 8.838805416434793, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 4, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 1, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 4, "explanation": "Price is 76% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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